Wednesday, December 16, 2015

미국연방준비위원회 이자율 0.25% 올렸다. 우리 한국은 어떻게 대처하지?

미국연방재정위원회가 2006년 이후 처음으로 이자율을 0.25%, 약 한시간전에, 올린다는 발표했다.이러한 조치는, 연방자금차용 이자율에 따라, 시중은행들이 0.25 에서 0.5% 상승된 이자율을 적용하게 된다. 지금 북미 동부의 표준시간은 5시30분을 가리키고 있다.
이번 이자율 상향조정으로 그여파는 전세계로 번져 영국도 이자율을 올려야만 상생할수있다는 압력을 받고 있다.
이번 이자율 상승으로 경제개발을 위해 자금을 빌려올때 더 많은 이자를 부담해야하고, 이렇게 되면 성장이 둔화되여, 이미 성장둔화의 조짐이 보이기까지 한다.
미국의 이자율은 2008년이후로 거의 0%로 유지해 왔었다.
There are concerns that a rise will compound that slowdown, as higher rates in the US could strengthen the dollar, the currency in which many countries and companies borrow.
It puts US policy at odds with that in Europe, where even easier borrowing terms are being implemented.
The European Central Bank earlier this month cut overnight deposit rates from minus 0.2% to minus 0.3% and extended a €60bn stimulus programme.
The Bank of England this month voted to keep rates on hold at 0.5%, with its next move in interest rates not expected until late 2016.

'Improvements'

The US rate rise vote was unanimous.
The US central bank also raised its projection for its economic growth next year slightly, from 2.3% to 2.4%.
That suggests the bank does not think the rate increase will damage growth. US share markets jumped in response.
The Dow Jones went from a 50-point rise to stand up 79 points, and later added to that to close up 224 points at 17,749 points, a 1.3% gain.

The US central bank cited as the reasons for its action increased household spending and investment by business, along with a continued low rate of inflation.
In its statement, the committee said: "The committee judges that there has been considerable improvements in labor market conditions this year, and it is reasonably confident that inflation will rise, over the medium term, to its 2% objective."

Screen with Fed announcementImage copyrightReuters

The Fed has said it will continue to monitor inflation and employment to determine if and when further rise are justified.
The chairman of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, said the committee was confident the economy would "continue to strengthen" but it still has "room for improvement".

2017 'normal'

Future action will depend on how the economy moves forward and will be gradual.
Ms Yellen acknowledged weakness remained in the labour market, particularly wage growth.
She warned that if the Fed had continued to delay a rate rise, it could have been forced to tighten monetary policy too quickly, something that could have led to another recession.
The Fed's medium-term projection for the Federal Funds rate is 1.5% in 2016 and 2.5% in 2017.
The Fed will not get close to normal levels of around 3.5% until 2018 when it expects the economy will be back on a solid track: "Were the economy to disappoint, the Federal Funds rate would likely rise more slowly," said Ms Yellen.
She gave little clue as to the timing of the next move, saying: "I'm not going to give you a simple formula for what we need to raise rates again."

At the Fed: Zoe Thomas, business reporter

After every pause by Janet Yellen, reporters' hands shot into the air, eager for answers as to the Fed's thinking. At one point a reporter lifted himself out of his chair.
Despite that enthusiasm, as the last question was asked, two reporters shared a celebratory bumping of their fists under the desk.
After all, the conference had gone on for more than an hour.
But when Ms Yellen left the room reporters stayed seated, staring at the empty podium as if waiting for another announcement.

UK rate move

UK rates have been held at 0.5% for more than six years.
Although some think the UK's central bank should act sooner than late 2016 to implement a rate rise, the UK business lobby group, the CBI, said it was unlikely to mean swifter action from the Bank of England.
Rain Newton-Smith, the CBI 's director of economics, said: "Alongside the US, the UK has been one of the best-performing advanced economies in recent years, but the Bank of England probably still has a way to go before rising inflationary pressures at home persuade it to follow and up interest rates."
But the Institute of Directors' chief economist, James Sproule, said it would give the Bank of England room to act.
"There will always be a thousand possible excuses not to raise rates, but... we are probably close to peak employment in the UK, with employment growth set to plateau next year," he said.
"All these factors should encourage rate-setters in the UK to think seriously about raising rates in early 2016."



http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35117405

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