Wednesday, May 10, 2017

새대통령(문재인) 대북한정책 U turn,트럼프도 만나겠다는데,평양방문 당연한것...불안감 조성,



문재인 대통령이  취임하자마자, 제일성으로 대북한정책을 완전히 바꾸어 다시 추진한다는뜻을 밝혔다. 수요일, 탄핵으로 대통령직에 물러난 박근혜 전 대통령으로 공석이 된 대통령보궐선거에서 당선된후 그의 뜻을 밝힌 것이다.  그는 박대통령의 대북 강경정책을 비판하면서, 안보위기문제를 가능한 빨리 해결할것을 약속하기도 했다.

"필요하다면, 당장에라도 와싱턴, 베이징 그리고 도쿄로 날아가 회담을 하겠다"라고 설명했다.   "또한 여건이 성숙되면 평양도 방문해서 한반도평화문제를 협의하기위해 할수 있는것은 모두 할것이다"라고 설명을 덧부쳤다.

또한 문대통령은 한미간의 동맹관계를 더욱 강화할것을 천명하기도했다.

문대통령이 대승한 요인은 다름아닌 부정부패와 경제(corruption and the economy)문제였지만, 지난 수주간  한반도에 긴장관계가 떠오른후 대북관계가 크게 부상했다.





햇볕정책으로의 회귀?.

A former special forces soldier and human rights lawyer, Moon came in for criticism during the campaign from hardline conservatives who saw him as weak on North Korea. 
Sunshine Policy
  • Foreign policy of South Korea from 1998 to 2008
  • Policy of engagement with North Korea on economic and political issues
  • Two South Korean Presidents traveled to Pyongyang
  • Earned South Korean President Kim Dae-jung a Nobel Peace Prize
  • Fewer North Korean nuclear and missile tests during this period
  • Ultimately failed to stop North Korean nuclear program
He has called for a combination of negotiations and economic cooperation alongside military and security measures. 
"I am confident to lead the diplomatic efforts involving multiple parties, which will lead to the complete abandonment of the North Korean nuclear program, and bring the relationship between South and North to peace, economic cooperation and mutual prosperity," Moon said in an April 25 debate.
His stance has been compared to the so-called "Sunshine Policy" of the liberal governments of 1998 to 2008. By no coincidence, he was a key adviser to those administrations.
During the Sunshine Policy, Seoul actively engaged Pyongyang, which led to closer relations on both sides of the border and saw two South Korean Presidents visit the North Korean capital. However, the approach ultimately failed to halt North Korea's nuclear weapons program.


Weapons testing

Moon, who takes office Wednesday, is unlikely to get a long honeymoon when it comes to North Korea. 
Experts have been predicting an imminent nuclear test, North Korea's sixth, for weeks now, as the country ramps up missile testing and saber rattling. 
On Sunday, Pyongyang announced it had detained a US citizen on suspicion of "hostile acts" against the regime, days after it accused Seoul and Washington of plotting to assassinate North Korean leader Kim Jong Un using "biochemical weapons." 
During the campaign, Moon advocated for engagement with North Korea -- particularly on the economic front -- as the best method to work towards a denuclearized Korean Peninsula. 
Such measures have not historically been popular with conservative administrations in the US, however President Donald Trump has vacillated between tough, militaristic talk on the North Korea issue and suggesting he could sit down with Kim himself.

Washington ties

The US and South Korea have a decades-long military and political alliance and Washington is by far Seoul's most important bilateral partner.
Facing criticism from the right that his party is anti-American, Moon has played up Trump's apparent willingness to meet with Kim, saying he is on the "same page" as the US leader. 
However, one area where they firmly not in agreement is over the deployment in South Korea of the US Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system.
The caretaker administration which took over after Park's impeachment accelerated the THAAD roll-out, despite widespread criticism from Moon and others on the left, who have argued its deployment should be contingent on a vote in the country's National Assembly. 
Last week, Washington and Seoul announced that THAAD was partially up and running, and analysts have warned Moon may be able to do little to prevent its full deployment.
But analysts warn perceptions that the US ignored South Korean input on its own security issues -- compounded when Trump called both Chinese President Xi Jinping and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to discuss North Korea, but the caretaker government in Seoul -- have left a key relationship strained before it has even begun.
Washington was left in a delicate position after Park's ouster, with several high-ranking administration officials -- including Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Vice President Mike Pence -- visiting Seoul to shore up the alliance amid tensions with North Korea. 
During their visits however, the US officials only met with caretaker President Hwang Kyo-ahn, who had already declared he would not stand to replace Park, and avoided any of her potential successors. 
http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/09/asia/south-korea-president-moon-north-korea/index.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/09/world/asia/south-korea-election-president-moon-jae-in.html?action=click&contentCollection=world&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=2&pgtype=sectionfront&_r=0

No comments: