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아래 사진은 2012년 12월과 2013년 12월에 촬영한것으로 집권 2년의 김정은 체제에서 지난 일년사이에 일어난 권력서열의 변화를 잘 보여주고 있는점에 유의 해야 한다.
12월 7일, 북한 김정은 체제의 실세들이 금수산 성전을 방문하여 썩지않게 방부처리하여 영구히 전시되고 있는 김정은의 아버지 김정일과 북한공산정권의 창시자 그의 할아버지인 김일성에게 경배 드리고 있는 모습이다.
2013녀도에 새로 실세대열에 떠오른 이름은 군장성인 리용길, 국방장관 장종남의 득세이다.
소위 7인방으로 일컬어졌던 인물중 3명은 북한정권 창건시 동참했던 구시대인물들이지만, 김정일 장례식때 운구차량을 뒤따랐었고, 김정은 정권 초창기에 실무담당을 했던 것으로 여겨지는 실세들로, 이번 12월달에 촬영된 사진에서는 앞줄에 도열해 있었다, 즉 숙청에서 벗어나 득세 했다는 점이다.
새로운 사실은 군부세력이 약진 했다는 점이다. 군부와 보안부서의 실세들은 김정은의 오른쪽에, 당간부들은 왼쪽에 도열해 있다는점이다. 이서열은 지난해에서 본것과는 정반대 현상이다. 또한 이번 사진에서는 최근에 무참하게 총살당한 장성택과 그의 부인의 실각을 확실히 증명해주고 있다는 점이다.
이런 예측 어려운 피의 숙청의 결과는 어떤 형태로 나타날까? 사진속의 인물들중 오늘밤을 무사히 넘기지 못하고 보안대 말단 병사의 손에 붙잡혀 끌려 나가지 않을것이란 확신이 없어 불안한 속에서 뜬눈으로 밤을 지샐지도 모를일이다.
12월 7일, 북한 김정은 체제의 실세들이 금수산 성전을 방문하여 썩지않게 방부처리하여 영구히 전시되고 있는 김정은의 아버지 김정일과 북한공산정권의 창시자 그의 할아버지인 김일성에게 경배 드리고 있는 모습이다.
2013녀도에 새로 실세대열에 떠오른 이름은 군장성인 리용길, 국방장관 장종남의 득세이다.
소위 7인방으로 일컬어졌던 인물중 3명은 북한정권 창건시 동참했던 구시대인물들이지만, 김정일 장례식때 운구차량을 뒤따랐었고, 김정은 정권 초창기에 실무담당을 했던 것으로 여겨지는 실세들로, 이번 12월달에 촬영된 사진에서는 앞줄에 도열해 있었다, 즉 숙청에서 벗어나 득세 했다는 점이다.
새로운 사실은 군부세력이 약진 했다는 점이다. 군부와 보안부서의 실세들은 김정은의 오른쪽에, 당간부들은 왼쪽에 도열해 있다는점이다. 이서열은 지난해에서 본것과는 정반대 현상이다. 또한 이번 사진에서는 최근에 무참하게 총살당한 장성택과 그의 부인의 실각을 확실히 증명해주고 있다는 점이다.
이런 예측 어려운 피의 숙청의 결과는 어떤 형태로 나타날까? 사진속의 인물들중 오늘밤을 무사히 넘기지 못하고 보안대 말단 병사의 손에 붙잡혀 끌려 나가지 않을것이란 확신이 없어 불안한 속에서 뜬눈으로 밤을 지샐지도 모를일이다.
Kim Jong-un presided over solemn memorials to mark the second anniversary of his father's death on Monday. One particular snapshot can provide us with insight into the leadership in the wake of the recent brutal purge of his uncle, explains North Korea leadership specialist Michael Madden.
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INTERACTIVE
Kim Won-hong
×Minister of state security
2013 status: He runs the secret police and is regarded as very powerful. He is likely to have played a key role in Chang Song-thaek's demise. In 2012 he was in the second row, while in 2013 he has moved up to the front row.Vice Marshal Kim Yong-chun
×Vice chairman of national defence commission
2013 status: A member of the so-called gang of seven who walked with Kim Jong-il's hearse in 2011. One of the few survivors of that group, he was moved to another post and now runs the citizen militias.Pak To-chun
×Party secretary
2013 status: Always present at public events. He is a crucial figure as he is charge of the daily management of production of weapons and WMDs. In 2012 he was standing right behind Kim Jong-un.Jang Jong-nam
×Defence minister
2013 status: Was not prominent last year. He has received a recent promotion and his status is regarded as solid.General Ri Yong-gil
×Head of North Korea's conventional armed forces /commander of military forces
2013 status: Promoted in August. Is not visible in the 2012 picture. He is the fourth person to hold this job in two years, but his position is currently regarded as stable.Choe Ryong-hae
×Head of the political corps of the army
2013 status: Considered extremely powerful. He has seen his influence increase over the last year.Ri Sol-ju
×Wife of Kim Jong-un
2013 status: Is a regular fixture at major state events at the leader's side.Kim Yong Nam
×(Nominal) head of state
2013 status: Is a permanent fixture at such events. A symbolic figurehead with little real power.Kim Jong-un
×Leader
2013 status: On the face of it, he appears to have tightened control after his purge, but some analysts see it as a sign of weakness.Pak Pong-ju
×Prime minister
2013 status: Was not prominent in the 2012 picture, but has been promoted and is now in a position of favour and power. He is thought to have a similar reformist outlook to Chang Song-thaek and is believed to have visited South Korea to survey its economic development.Kim ki-nam
×Propaganda boss
2013 status: He is one of the old guard who hasn't been purged. One of the so-called gang of seven who walked with kim Jong-il’s hearse in 2011. He features in the 2012 photograph.Choe Tae-bok
×Korean Workers Party secretary
2013 status: Another one of the so-called gang of seven. A remnant of the old era and thought to be a reformer. In 2013 he was not visible. Analysts think that because he is ageing he may be permitted to shed roles and responsibility.Yang Hyong-sop
×Vice president of supreme people's assembly presidium
2013 status: Powerful and a member of the Kim family by marriage. He has moved up a row from 2012.Kang Sok-ju
×Vice premier with responsibility for foreign policy
2013 status: Had a prominent role in six-party talks over the country's nuclear programme. Was though to be close to Kim Jong-il and is clearly still a powerful force. Moved up a row from 2012.Kim Kyong-hui
×Wife to Chang Song-thaek and Korean Workers Party secretary
2012 status: In 2012 she was in a position of great power as the younger sister of Kim Jong-il whose death they were commemorating. In 2013 she was absent following her husband Chang Song-thaek's execution.Ri Sol-ju
×Wife of Kim Jong-un
2012 status: In December 2012 she was in her first year as the first lady of North Korea and had made a handful of public appearances by that time. This was one of the most important.Kim Jong-un
×Leader
2012 status: In December 2012 he had been leader for a year and was still surrounded by the men appointed to oversee his transition to the leadership.Choe Chun-sik
×President of the second academy of natural sciences
2012 status: In charge of the scientists and researchers in North Korea's weapons programme. He had pride of place in 2012 because they had launched a missile just five days earlier. He and a number of his staff were invited to commemorate the anniversary as a mark of favour. They did not feature in the 2013 imageVice-Marshal Choe Ryong-hae
×Head of the political corps of the army
2012 status: He was powerful in 2012, but appears to have gained more favour over the last year.Chang Song-thaek
×Vice-chairman of national defence commision
2012/13 status: Kim Jong-un's uncle was regarded as a powerful figure in 2012 and was seen by outside observers as the new leader's mentor. He was known to be a proponent of economic reform. By December 2013 Chang Song-thaek had been executed - accused of multiple crimes, including forming a power base and attempting to overthrow the state.Hyong Yong-chol
×Chief of military general staff – conventional armed forces
2012/13 status: In 2012 this was a powerful position. He has since been demoted and does not figure prominently in 2013 picture.Kim Kyok-sik
×Defence minister
2012/13 status: Visited Cuba in July 2013, shortly before missiles were discovered on a North Korean ship which had left Cuba and docked in Panama. He has since disappeared and was thought to have fallen from favour. However, in an image of Chang Song-thaek being removed from parliament, he can be seen sitting in front of Chang.
Early on 17 December, North Korea's elite paid homage at the Kumsusan mausoleum where the embalmed bodies of former leader Kim Jong-il and his father, the founder of the nation, Kim Il-sung lie.
They did exactly the same a year ago - but it was a different group of people. Comparing the line-up this year with the photograph taken last year can give us some insight into the power play in this secretive nation.
Conclusions are difficult to reach because the regime is both opaque and unpredictable, but there are possible clues about the future direction of Kim Jong-un and the men who surround him.
The images may look virtually identical but there are many hidden signs of subtle but potentially significant changes among North Korea's top leaders.
Power to the right?
There are several new faces in the front row and more military uniforms. The military and security staff are on Kim Jong-un's right and the party people are on the left. This represents a reversal from last year.
Some defector sources say that if you are on the right you are in a more valued position than if you are on the left. It is hard to say how true that is, but there is definitely an argument current among some that those on the Supreme Leader's right wield greater power.
The most notable absence is what has dominated headlines - which is that of Chang Song-thaek, recently executed in an unprecedented public purge.
Chang's widow Kim Kyong-hui is also missing from the picture, but few expected her to be present and it is difficult to know what to read into this. Some may see it as a sign she is out of favour but others have suggested that she may have even a played a role in the purge.
People that Chang had social ties with and associates with a similar reformist outlook were present - one is the current prime minister, Pak Pong-ju. He seems to have come to the fore in the last year and occupies a prominent position in the line-up.
Two new names in 2013 stand out: General Ri Yong-kil and Defence Minister Jang Jong-nam - powerful figures to watch.
Ruthless rising star
China is the other silent presence in this picture. The men in civilian suits standing on the right of the picture - Kim Ki-nam and Choe Tae-bok - are all figures with ties in China and interests in foreign relations. These were people present in 2012 and so their inclusion projects a message of continuity - even if just cosmetic.
Another interesting figure obscured on the left is General Kim Won-hong but he is not to be overlooked. He runs the secret police, thought to be very powerful and whose star is rapidly rising.
He is likely to have played a key role in Chang Song-thaek's demise. In 2012 he was in the second row - he has now moved up to the front row. We may well see more of him.
Three members of the so-called gang of seven - the old guard who accompanied the hearse of Kim Jong-il and were thought to be appointed to oversee the transition of power - are also visible at the front.
Michael Madden runs the North Korea leadership watch website.
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