위성사진으로 밝혀진 북한의 핵실험설비 개량중 - 판문점회담, 싱가폴회담은 뭘의미하는가?

Trump 대통령과의 약속을 헌신짝(?)처럼 버리고, 김정은이는 반대의 길로 가고 있다는 증거가, 미국의 38North, 즉 북한 전역을 전문적으로 감시하는 유명한 단체가, 위성이 찍은 사진을 분석한후 보고서를 작성하면서, 사진을 첨부해서 발표했다.  즉 북한의 영변 핵과학연구소의 구조를 급속히 개량하고있는것을 증명하는 사진이 공개된것이다. 이시설은 대량살상무기에 사용하는 물질을 분해하는데 사용됐었던것이다.

이분석이 사실이라면, Trump의 다음순서는 어떻게 진행될까?라는데 시선이 집중될것 같다.
"One shot"을 유난히 강조한 Trump의 의중은 무엇을 뜻하는 것일까? 섣부른 결론보다는 진지한 관심을 갖고, 한반도의 평화를 위한 인내심을 갖고, 맹방인 미국의 Trump대통령의 다음 조치를 주시해 보자.

38 North의 분석내용을 확인차 CNN이 한국의 통일부와 접촉하면서 물었을때, 그들은 대답하기를 "현재로서는 이보고서 내용이 확실하다고 답할수 없으며, 다만 우리는 매우 심각하게 주시하고 있다"라고 확인해 주었을 뿐이다.

보고서에 따르면, "영변핵실험장에서 작업이 계속되고 있다고 해서, 북한이 약속한 비핵화와 어떤 연관이 있다는것으로 보여지는 것은 없었다." 라고 단서를 부치기도 했었다. 그러나 정상회담이후에도 핵실험장은 계속유지되고 있음을 보면서, 평양당국은 전과 다름없이 핵시설을 이용한 작업을 계속하고 있음을 추측할수있게한다 라고 했다.

"정상회담이후 변화의 조짐이 보이고 있다는 증거는 그어디에도 없었다. 이시설을 이용하여 북한이 필요로 하는 풀르토니움을 생산하고 있다는 뜻이다."라고 Middlebury의 국제연구소의 Jeffery Lewis교수는 설명하고 있다.

38 North의 이미지 분석은 미국과 정상회담후 비핵화의 이행사항을 협의하겠다고 합의한 내용에 전면 부정하는것으로, 북한이 핵개발 프로그람을 현재도 진행하고 있다는것을 똑똑히 보여주는 내용으로 보인다.  이대목이 바로 Pompeo 국무장관이 비핵화의 단계별 진행상황 설명을 거절해오고있는, 난제라는 뜻이다.

자세한 내용은 아래 뉴스보도를 보면 상세히 알수 있다.

Washington (CNN)New satellite images show North Korea has made rapid improvements to the infrastructure at its Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center -- a facility used to produce weapons-grade fissile material, according to an analysis published by 38 North, a prominent North Korea monitoring group. 

Captured on June 21, the photos reveal modifications to the site's plutonium production reactor and the construction of several support facilities -- long-planned upgrades that were already underway before North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and US President Donald Trump met in Singapore earlier this month.

When contacted by CNN about 38 North's analysis, the Unification Ministry said they "cannot confirm the report" and are "watching it closely."

The report states that "continued work at the Yongbyon facility should not be seen as having any relationship to North Korea's pledge to denuclearize," but the photos suggest that Pyongyang continues to proceed with business as usual when it comes to maintaining its nuclear sites following the summit. 

"No change is actually a pretty significant story ... this is still an active site producing plutonium for North Korea," according to Jeffrey Lewis, a professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies.

The images stand in stark contrast to Trump's recent declaration that the North Korean regime no longer poses a nuclear threat, even though the meeting produced no verifiable proof that North Korea will discontinue its nuclear program.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Wednesday that North Korea remains a nuclear threat, but defended Trump's previous comment.

"I'm confident what he intended there was we did reduce the threat," said Pompeo. "I don't think there's any doubt about that. We took the tension level down."

"I think his point was a fair one," he added. "For the moment, we have reduced risk."

But Trump has repeatedly mischaracterized the nature of his deal with Kim, insisting last week that the North Korean dictator had agreed to begin "total denuclearization" right away.

In reality, the document he signed with Kim at their June 12 summit in Singapore only reiterated North Korea's previous commitment to "work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula," and the new images released Wednesday align with Defense Secretary James Mattis' assessment that Pyongyang remains in a holding pattern as negotiators discuss the next steps in talks.

"The summit pledge is important, but it was not a written agreement that laid out what the North Koreans have to do -- that doesn't exist right now, so I'm not surprised they are continuing to operate their facilities," said Joel Wit, a Senior Fellow at the Stimson Center and Director of 38 North.

Adam Mount, a senior fellow and director at the Federation of American Scientists, agreed that the images indicate that North Korea will continue to support the foundation of its nuclear program until the two sides are able to agree on specific terms.

"Because Kim Jong Un has so far avoided making a commitment to halt research and development activities, the changes are not a success or failure of the diplomatic process, but simply a signal that North Korea's nuclear infrastructure remains fully in use," Mount told CNN.

"That Yongbyon continues to receive scarce funds speaks to its continued value to the regime. There is little indication that North Korea has halted research, development, or production of nuclear systems even as talks continue," he added.

North Korea also maintains other nuclear facilities where they produce the bulk of their nuclear weapons materials and missiles. While these sites cannot be detected by monitoring groups, they are assumed to remain operational, according to Wit.

Trump has often pointed to the absence of North Korean missile and nuclear tests in recent months as a sign of progress toward denuclearization, but continued maintenance of facilities like Yongbyon show that talks with the US have not yet prompted Kim to take significant steps toward truly dismantling the foundation of his program.

"Both secret and Yongbyon facilities can continue operating and expand the fissile material stockpile," Vipin Narang, an associate professor of political science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who studies nuclear proliferation, told CNN.

"We have no way to stop this or verify any pledges to freeze," he said, noting that Kim has intentionally only agreed to freeze full blown testing, not production.

North Korea can also continue to improve its warhead and ballistic designs without conducting tests, Narang added.

"North Korea has had a decade-long nuclear testing sequence where they have presumably learned a lot about designs," he told CNN. "They probably do not need full blown tests to go into serial production of warheads. And they can improve components and perfect designs with subcritical and hydrodynamic tests which we wouldn't be able to monitor or detect." 

Ultimately, 38 North's analysis of these images provides a realistic look at the current state of North Korea's nuclear program amid talks with the US and the challenges facing negotiators tasked with achieving denuclearization -- a process for which Pompeo has refused to offer a timeline.

"We should remain skeptical that North Korea's nuclear calculus has changed dramatically. Every indication since the beginning of the year is that Pyongyang is seeking to exploit diplomacy to its advantage, including by continuing to improve its arsenal," Mount told CNN. "Halting a clearly-defined list of weapons activities should be the first step in negotiations."

"What is needed now is sustained and direct negotiations between the two sides on a framework for phased steps on denuclearization, as well as concrete steps toward a peace regime on the Korean peninsula," according to Kingston Reif, director for disarmament and threat reduction policy at the Arms Control Association.

"So far, such a framework has not been established. In other words, there is no 'deal,'" he said.

CNN's Laura Koran in Washington and Sophie Jeong in Seoul contributed to this report.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/27/politics/north-korea-infrastructure-improvements-nuclear-facility/index.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/north-korea/north-korea-has-increased-nuclear-production-secret-sites-say-u-n887926

https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/27/politics/pompeo-north-korea-threat/index.html