김정은에게 10.10은 항상 최대의 명절로 경축했었으나, 이번에는 최대의 권력위기에 몰려 앞날이 불투명한 것으로 평가되는데, 그가 5년전에 공개 선언했던 "가장 잘사는 사회주의국가 건설을 하겠다"라고 큰소리 쳤지만, 경제사정은 더악화되여, 이번 10.10축하 행사는 심각한 정권몰락의 위기속에서 살얼음 걷는식으로 75주년 경축행사를 맞이 하고 있다는 것이다.
2016년 5월 7일, 전세계적으로 가장 젊은 나이의 독재자, 김정은이는 북한의 25백만 주민들에게 공개적으로 약속을 했었다. 5년안에 우리 북한주민들은 상상을 추월할 정도로 삶의질이 향상될것이다라고, 당시 32세의 김정은이는 "우리는 아주 잘사는 사회주의 국가가 될것이다"라고 선언했었다.(Kim Jong Un, then 32 years old). "우리 북조선 주민들은 잘먹고 잘살고, 문화생활을 즐기면서 모두가 가슴속에 개인적 문화생활을 즐기면서 살게될것이다"라고 자랑스럽게 선언했었다.
그당시에 북한은 지구상에서 가장 가난한 나라들중의 하나였었고, 핵무기 개발을 끈질기게 개발하는 탕아의 나라로 찍혀, 경제적 봉쇄를 당해, 국제적으로 완전 왕따를 당하고 있었다. 김정은이는 그의 아버지시대에 충성스럽게 헌신했던 수십명의 고급관리들을 숙청시키고난후 자신만만하게 대중앞에 나타났었던 것이다.
그러나 2016년도에, 1980년이후 첫번째 노동당 전당대회이후 그가 발표했던 경제개발 5개년 개발계획은 자세한 내용은 밝혀지지 않은채, 항상 주창해 왔던 낡은 20세기에 있었던것의 재탕이었을 뿐으로, 전폭적인 지지를 얻는데 실패한것이다. 그발표내용에는 자세한것이 없었고, 김이 주창했던 목적을 달성하기위한, 아무런 변화된 주요 정책이 전연 보이질 않았었다.
오는 토요일, 10월10일은 북한 노동당 창건이후 북한을 통치해온지 75주년이 되는 날이다. 지금까지는 김정은이는 북한의 명절이 10.10절에는 그의 업적중 가장 특기할만한 북한경제개발의 성공적 완수를 경축할것으로 모두가 기대해 왔었다. 그것은 바로 김정은이가 가장 훌륭한 지도자중의 하나임을 만천하에 쌍수들어 흑색선전할수 있는, 또한북한역사상 가장 자유를 위해 투쟁해온 인물로, 아니면 적어도 북한에서만이라도 그렇게 훌륭하다는것을 나타낼수있는 기회였다.
2012년 정권을 잡은후 2년동안 김은 선전하기를, 북한은 핵무기프로그람을 개발함과 동시에 경제개발을 시작하는 원년으로 삼고, 이끌어 갈것이라고 했었다. 2년동안 많은 노력을 기울이면서, 오직 탄도미사일과 핵무기실험을 집중적으로 했는데, 이노력은 그의 아버지 할아버지때의 노력을 다합친것보다 더 많이 했었지만, 큰소리 쳤던 경제개발은 오히려 더 찌글어 들기만 했었다.
2017년 수소탄을 개발하는데 집중하여 수소탄 발사실험과 장거리 탄도미사일 발사에 성공했지만, 전문가들은 정말로 지구 반대편에 있는 목표물을 정확히 명중할수있는지의 여부에 대해서는 많은 논란이 일고 있는 것이다. 그러나 김정은 Regime은 미국과 서방세계를 신경쓰게 하기에 충분한 시위를 한것은 틀림없는것 같다.
이와는 반대로 오늘 조선일보, 중앙일보들의 보도를 보면, 김정일 Regime은 전례없이, 한밤중 새벽에 10.10행사를 진행했다고 했는데, 그 진의는 아직도 파악못하고 헤매고있는 중이라는 내용의 보도였었다. 이시위는 미국이 신경에 거슬려 했었던것 같다고 분석했는데.... 암튼 문재인과 그패거리 그리고 한국군의 똥별들은 아무런 대응 한마디 못하고 강건너 등불구경하듯이, 쳐다만 보고 있고....죄없는 기업총수들만 잡아다 족칠 Conspiracy에 여념이 없었다. 이게 나라냐? 아들놈은 국정감사하는 국회의원을 권력 남용한다고 지랄발광을 하다가, 결국은 잘못했다고 사죄나 하고...
김정은이가 자기의 위기를 이번에는 이런식의 한밤중 행사를 치러, 주민들 괴롭히는것으로, 탈출할려는 흉계를 외신은 정확히 간파한 것이다. 문재인은 그시간에 뭐 했을까?
트럼프 대통령과 김정은이는 3차례 만났다. 2018년6월 싱가폴에서, 2019년 2월에는 월남 하노이에서, 같은해 6월달에는 판문점에서 간단히 만남을 가졌었다. 3번째 만났을때는 경제개발 3년차를 훨씬 넘기고 있었지만, 경제적 부흥을 약속했었지만 그약속을 지키지 못했었다.
트럼프 대통령과 월남 하노이에서 만날때까지 김정은이는 그의 방식데로 움직여 왔었다. 그때까지 꼬마 김정은이는 핵무기개발 프로그람에 많은 진전을 시켰었다. 동맹국 중국과의 관계(repaired relations)를 개선하고, 또한 미국대통령과 회담도하고, 꿈꾸어왔었던 북한을 창설한 그의 할아버지와 그의 아버지가 해왔던 '프로파간다'의 꿈을 이루었었다. 그러나 그꿈은 꿈으로 끝나서, 체제 유지조차도 어려워서, 이번 행사를 한밤중에 비밀리(?)치렀던 것으로 미국은 추측하고 있다.
김정은이가 이런 역사를 모를리 없지만, 얼간이 문재인을 자기 앞에 무릎꿀릴려는 야심을 채우기위해, 그리고나서 남북한 연방제를 만들려는 흉계일뿐임을 모르는 국민들은 없지만, 오직 문재인과 이인영 그리고 그패거리들만 김정은에 읍소하지 못해 안달일 뿐이다.
[출처: 중앙일보] 北, 첫 새벽 열병식…신형 ICBM과 SLBM 북극성-4A형도 등장
문재인아, 그리고 좌파 패거리들아, 정신차려, 절대로 김정은 꼬마에게 흔들리지 말고, 먼저 이번에 김정은이의 총알에 피살된 공무원의 무고한 죽음을 응징할 방책을 찾아서 김정은에 경고부터 하고, 국민들 몰래 도적질하여 배를 채운 사기질 그만하고, 이제부터라도 정신 차리고 나라경제 부흥하는데 올인 하시라. 마지막 경고다.
(CNN)When the world's youngest dictator addressed his 25 million or so people on May 7, 2016, he made a bold promise.
In just five years, the livelihoods of all North Koreans would be markedly improved, said Kim Jong Un, then 32 years old. North Korea would become a "highly civilized socialist country" whose people would enjoy the "conditions and environment for leading a wealthy and a highly civilized life to their heart's content," Kim said.
The goal was ambitious bordering on impossible.
At the time, North Korea was one of the world's poorest countries, and an international pariah restrained by economic sanctions for its dogged pursuit of a nuclear weapons program.
Kim appeared confident that, after purging dozens of officials who served under his father, a new cohort of leaders under his stewardship could turn things around. But the economic vision Kim laid out at that major conference in 2016 -- the first Workers' Party of Korea Congress since 1980 -- was not supported by any details other than a vague five-year plan, the economic agendas common among 20th century communist states.
There were no specifics, and certainly no major policy changes designed to achieve Kim's aim.
This Saturday, October 10, marks 75 years since the founding of the Workers' Party of Korea -- the communist political party that has ruled North Korea since the country's inception.
By now, Kim could have expected to have been celebrating his country's economic success alongside one of its most significant national days.
It would have been a golden propaganda opportunity to portray Kim as one of the most important leaders and freedom fighters in Korean history, or at least North Korea's version of it.
This photo taken on May 6, 2016 and released on May 7 by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) shows North Korean leader Kim Jong Un making an opening speech during the 7th Workers Party Congress.
But the last few years haven't panned out as Kim might have hoped, and by mid-August of 2020, he admitted what had become abundantly clear: the plan had failed.
Kim blamed "unexpected and inevitable challenges in various aspects and the situation in the region surrounding the Korean peninsula," according to a report published by North Korea's state-run news agency KCNA.
State media didn't specify which challenges, but they are likely to include sanctions, the coronavirus pandemic and fallout from recent floods.
October 10 will still be celebrated, though it's unclear how the country will adapt its customary military parades amid the coronavirus pandemic.
Satellite images taken in August and September appear to show rehearsals are underway, according to an analysis by North Korea specialty website 38 North. And a handful of experts believe Pyongyang may use the opportunity to reveal a new "strategic weapon" that Kim teased in January.
Still, October 10 was supposed to be more than just a military parade -- it was supposed celebration of all Kim Jong Un had accomplished in the last five years. Instead, Kim must mark the occasion while facing the most daunting set challenges he has seen since taking power.
A strategy half-finished
Two years after taking power in 2012, Kim announced North Korea would be guided a new national strategy of developing the country's nuclear weapons program while simultaneously working to jump start the economy.
The two were hardly given equal weight in practice. Kim oversaw more ballistic missile and nuclear weapons tests than his father and grandfather combined, while the economy sputtered along year after year. The focus on weapons yielded fruit in 2017, when Kim successfully tested a hydrogen bomb and three intercontinental ballistic missiles, the type of projectiles designed to deliver nuclear warheads over long distances. While experts still debate whether or not North Korea can successfully pair the two and hit a precise target half a world away, the regime demonstrated enough new capabilities to worry the United States and its allies.
In his annual New Year's Day address in 2018, a speech akin to a US President's State of the Union, Kim said that North Korea had completed its effort to develop viable nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles and thanked his people for paying the price.
"We have created a mighty sword for defending peace, as desired by all our people who had to tighten their belts for long years," he said.
North Korea's nuclear weapons program was costly, and more than just in terms of man hours and materiel. Each weapons test was seen as a major provocation by the international community. They were met with increasingly punishing United Nations Security Council resolutions. At first, sanctions mostly targeted North Korea's weapons production capabilities, but by 2017, the international community was going after Pyongyang's ability to make money overseas on everything from shellfish to coal. The hope was that these measures would choke North Korea's economy to the point that it would force Kim to the negotiating table.
When the time came for his January 2018 speech -- approaching two years into the five-year plan -- Kim shifted gears. He was ready to embrace diplomacy, and he did it fast. In just six months, Kim went from global pariah to a statesman holding court with the leaders of China, South Korea, Singapore and the United States.
What exactly motivated Kim to stop weapons testing and emerge from isolation is still debated. US President Donald Trump's administration claims sanctions, which Washington had largely organized and pushed for, gave Kim no choice but to negotiate. Kim, on the other hand, said in March of 2018 that his country no longer needed weapons tests because its quest for nuclear bombs and the missiles to deliver them was complete. Diplomacy was the logical next move.
Kim now had his weapons and he was ready to talk.
Three meetings, two leaders, one big disagreement
Trump and Kim met three times: June 2018 in Singapore, February 2019 in Hanoi and then again briefly at the demilitarized zone that divides the two Koreas in June 2019. By the third meeting, North Korea was more than three years into its five-year plan, but had yet to deliver the economic prosperity promised to its people.
Things had largely been going Kim's way until he met Trump in the Vietnamese capital. By that point, the young North Korean leader had arguably completed an advanced nuclear weapons program; repaired relations with longtime ally China; and held a meeting with a sitting US president, a propaganda victory his father and his grandfather -- the man who founded North Korea -- had only dreamed of.
Kim came to Hanoi ready to make a deal to shut down Yongbyon, the biggest and best-known facility in North Korea that produced fissile material for nuclear weapons, in exchange for sanctions relief, according to Trump's former national security adviser, John Bolton.
But Trump's administration vowed that sanctions relief would not come before Kim surrendered his nuclear weapons. North Korea had struck phased, step-by-step nuclear deals with previous US administrations, but all those had failed. Trump and his aides made it clear it was time for something new.
Trump wanted some sort of "big deal" that saw North Korea give up its nuclear program quickly for immediate sanctions relief. A top State Department official said Washington was seeking something like a nuclear down payment.
But such a deal requires a modicum of trust, something the two sides do not have. North Korea has long looked at leaders like Moammar Gadhafi of Libya -- who gave up his incipient nuclear weapons program in exchange for financial relief, only to be overthrown by US-backed forces years later -- as cautionary tales.
The disagreement over the big picture didn't derail things in Singapore, but it proved insurmountable in Hanoi.
Kim repeatedly pushed a deal along the lines of Yongbyon-for-sanctions relief, but he was not keen to negotiate away ballistic missiles or North Korea's secret nuclear sites, according to Bolton's recently published memoir. Bolton said he was told by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo that Kim told Trump and the top US diplomat he was "very frustrated" and "getting angry" that Washington wasn't keen on the trade. Later, when Bolton was in the room, he said Kim appeared "visibly frustrated" when it became clear the two sides had reached an impasse.
Trump decided to walk away, concluding that Kim wasn't ready to agree to something the White House was interested in. Working-level talks between the two sides both before and after Hanoi failed to yield any substantial progress, though the two leaders continued corresponding through letters.
How the Hanoi summit unraveled 02:25
So Pyongyang resumed weapons testing, though not the long-range ballistic missiles that could reach the United States, and Kim gave the US something of an ultimatum: come up with some new ideas by the end of the year, or else.
That deadline came and went, and all the while, North Korea's economy continued to struggle. Sanctions are still place and are keeping Pyongyang from improving its economic outlook.
By January 1, 2020, North Korea was four years into the five-year plan and the country's economy had not yet made any significant headway.
The forthcoming global pandemic would make things worse.
Pandemic problems
North Korea might be one of the most isolated countries in the world, but its close proximity and relations with China meant it couldn't take any chances when the coronavirus emerged in the Chinese city of Wuhan.
Foreign travel to North Korea was extremely limited even before the pandemic, but in January the country shut its borders, announced a "state emergency" and set up anti-epidemic headquarters around the country.
The decision made sense. Doctors who have defected in recent years paint a picture of a derelict health care system in dire need of upgrades. North Korea's medical infrastructure would likely be overwhelmed in the event of a major outbreak. Strictly enforcing public health measures and closing the border have likely helped prevent the virus from spreading.
But even for a country known as the "hermit kingdom" that prides itself on independence -- the country's state ideology, Juche, is often translated as "self-reliance" -- a lockdown comes with serious costs.
Pyongyang is heavily reliant on trade with China to keep its economy afloat. Clamping down on the border essentially cut North Korea off from its economic lifeline, and the total volume of trade between the two countries crashed before briefly rising again in June, according to Chinese customs data reported by North Korean news monitoring site NK News.
Historic flooding this summer brought on by major storms also strained resources.
With the pandemic raging and sanctions still in place, it was clear that Kim's aim to give his people a "wealthy and a highly civilized life" would not pan out.
Kim threw in the towel in August, and KCNA reported that North Korea would form a new Party Congress to assess what went wrong. The North Korean leader is expected to announce a new five-year plan early next year.
The show will go on
Kim may not be able to celebrate economic glory on October 10, but experts predict he will use the opportunity to give the world a glimpse of some of North Korea's newest advanced weaponry -- perhaps the mysterious "strategic weapon" he teased at the start of the year.
Satellite imagery appears to show some movement at a shipping yard that's known for submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) development, fueling speculation that Pyongyang may test a new, solid-fueled SLBM.
North Korea has tested liquid-fueled submarine missiles before, but their solid-fueled counterparts are more advanced -- and easier to fire at short notice. A successful launch would represent another major milestone in North Korea's push for modern weapons technology.
Whatever North Korea teases or tests, any new weaponry is likely to receive plenty of attention. Within North Korea, a show of military strength will serve as a timely distraction from the pandemic, the economy and Kim's failed five-year plan.
The Kim family's reign in North Korea has proven remarkably durable. Kim's father, Kim Jong Il, remained in power despite a famine that killed hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of people.
When Kim took power after his father's death in 2011, he defied widespread expectations of his imminent demise, proving himself to be a shrewd and calculating politician.
Kim's economic ambitions may not have materialized, but the North Korean leader is likely to be around for some time yet. The international community will be watching closely in January when he releases his next five-year plan, to see how the North Korean leader intends to build wealth in an economy heavily restrained by sanctions.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/08/asia/north-korea-workers-party-75-years-intl-hnk/index.html
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