중국 자본투자로 건설된 Maldives의 기반시설이, 그곳 주민들의 목을 조이고, 중국은 패권주의 성취를 이루어, 서방세계와 인도에 위협이 되고 있다. 명목상 미개발국가를 도와준다는 명분을 앞세워 투자를 하지만, Maldives를 포함한 많은 나라, 특히 아프리카 여러나라들의 Infrastructure 건설에 중국자본과 인력이 투입되여, 결론적으로는 전부 Debt인데, Maldives 정부와 국민들은, 현재는 우선 사회간접시설이 확충되여 주민들의 삶의 질 향상에 도움을 주고 있지만, 투자받은 원금및 이자를 갚을 희망이 없음을 간파하고 나라 전체가 걱정에 쌓여 있다는 뉴스가 남의 나라일 같지가 않다.
들리는 말로는 제주도에는 지금 어디를 가나 중국인들이 득실 거리고, 동시에 중국자본이 투자되여, 좀 과장되게 얘기 한다면, 지금 제주도는 중국의 한 Province가 아닌가? 할 정도로 주거 환경이 바뀌어 졌다고 하면서, 많은 뜻있는 사람들이 걱정 아닌 걱정을 하고 있다는 것이다.
Maldives의 수도 Male의 좁은 도로에서 택시에 태울 승객을 찾아 헤매곤 했었는데, 2018년에 중국자본2억달러로 2.1키로의 Bridge를 Male에서 국제공항이 있는 Hulumale섬까지 건설하여, Taxi운전수, 2명의 자녀를 둔 엄마Waheeda씨의 수입이 두배이상 늘어, 여유있게 삶을 꾸리면서,중국에 감사하다고 인사까지 한다. 두섬을 연결하는 다리 완성으로 140,000명이 거주하는 Male시는 교통체증없이 삶을 즐긴다고 하는데....
개발도상국가에 중국자본이 투자되여 사회간접시설을 확충하는 프로젝트가 서방국가들로 부터 많은 비난을 받고있는데, Sinamale다리가 - 일명 중국-Maldives간 우정의 다리 -몰리브국민들의 삶의 질을 향상 시켰다는 성공적인 결과라고 주민들은 좋아하고 있다.
그러나 현Maldives정부는 그렇게 좋게만보지 않고, 관광에 의존하여 살아가는 조그만 섬나라가 중국에 진 빚을 어떻게 갚아야 할지? 경종을 울려주고 있다는 것이다. 중국에 많이 의존하면서 나라를 이끌었던 Abdullah Yameen씨가 2013년 대통령에 당선되면서, 많은 사회간접시설 프로젝트 건설이 이루어 졌었는데, 공항을 이어주는 이 다리도 그프로젝트중의 하나다. 경제개발을 원했던 그는 수억달러를 중국으로 부터 빌려와서 개발을 서두른 것이다.
그때에 중국의 시진핑 주석은 중국과 아시아 여러나라뿐만 아니라 다른 대륙에 까지 도로 철도 그리고 새로운 항로를 건설하는, 소위 말해서 "벨트와 도로건설 주도권"사업을 주도하고 있었다.
외형적으로는 미개발 국가에 대한 협력 개발사업이라고 하지만, 투자에 대한 조건을 자세히 들여다보면 소나 말에 채운 '고삐'같아 중국힘이 세게 작용하게 했는데, 군사전문가, 경제학자들은, 이렇게 미끼를 던져놓고 공산사회주의 팽창야욕을 채워 미국과 서방세계의 자유민주주의에 위협이 된다는 주장인데, Maldives주재 중국대사는, 같이 잘살아보자는 중국의 협조정신을 잘못이해하고, 부채총액도 실제와는 다르게 부풀려져 있다고 항의 한다.
남지나해의 조그만섬을 인공섬으로 확장하여, 군사비행장까지 건설하고, 인근 동남아 국가들의 안전을 위협하고 있는것은 이미 알고 있는, 중국 시진핑의 팽창야욕을 잘보여주는 사례중 하나일뿐이다. 미국의 태평양fleet가 이를 예의주시하면서 경고를 보내고는 있지만...
Yameen대통령 집권동안 그는 인권유린을 한 증거가 있었지만, 이를 그는 부인했지만, 전임 대통령, Mohamed Nasheed를 포함하여 수많은 정적들을 그가 감옥에 처넣었던 기록이 이를 증명한다. 2018년 다리가 개통된지 수주후에 치러진 대선에서 Yameen은 '몰디브 민주당(Maldivian Democratic Party)에 대패하면서, MDP의 Ibrahim Solih이 대통령이 되면서, 감옥에 있었던 Nasheed가 다시 정치판에 뛰어들게 한다.
이글을 읽으면서, 한국의 문재인에게 주는 커다란 경종임을 즉시 느낄수 있었다. 문재인이가 대통령 되면서, 갑자기 중국 시진핑에 읍소하면서, 중국자본이 한국의 제주도를 기점으로 전국적으로 투자되고 있고, 또 가장 국민들의 가슴을 아프게 한것은 전임 정부의 두대통령을 감옥에 처넣고 유유자적하는데, 그죄목이 지금 문재인과 그패거리들이 저지른 범죄 혐의에 비하면 코끼리 비스켓 정도인데....
남북 경협자금과 4대강 댐건설, 청계천 개혁사업을 포함한 그외 수많은 전임정부 업적을 억지로 폄하해서 전직 두대통령을 깔아 뭉개는 문재인의 마음은 편치 않을 것으로 나는 생각한다. 그도 인간이기에 말이다.
몰디브의 새정부는 나라재정을 세밀히 조사했었는데, 그결과를 보면서 대통령을 포함한 정부각료들은 충격에 빠졌었다.
"중국에 진 빚이 자그만치 31억달러다"라고, 현 국회의장 Nasheed씨가 설명했다. 정부와 정부간에 진 빚, 국가운영사업 그리고 정부가 보증선 민간기업 차관들이 포함되여있다. 그의 걱정은 나라전체가 빚에 목덜미가 잡혀 있다는 것이다.
"건설된 사회간접시설로 벌어들인 수입으로 빚을 갚을수 있을까? 이 시설들을 이용하여 돈을 벌어 들인다해도 차관을 갚을 능력이 안된다는 정황들이 확실히 나타나고 있다"라고.
그는 주장하기를 서류상에 표시된 빚은 프로젝트 건설비용을 많이 부풀려 표시되여 실질적으로 투자받은 돈보다 훨씬 크다는 것이다. 그는 설명하기를, 비록 그의 설명을 뒷받침 할만한 서류들을 발표하지는 않았었지만 실질적으로 11억달러 뿐이라는 것이다.
한국의 문재인 정부 집권 3년반동안과 앞으로 남은 임기 동안에 나라빚은 1000조원이 넘을 것이라는 전문가들의 설명과 비교해 보면서, 중국에 코를 끼어 질질 끌려 다니게 될것 같다는 걱정이 태산 같아진다.
한국이 중국에 질질 끌려 다니게 되면 한국뿐만이 아니고 극동아시와 동남 아시아의 안보에 커다란 위협이 된다는것을 문재인과 그패거리들은 지금이라도 깊이 깨닫기를 바랄뿐이다.
국민들의 경각심을 불러 일으키기에 충분한 Sample을 보여줬는데.... 하늘이시여, 하늘이시여..... 대한민국을 버리지 마시길...
China debt dogs Maldives' 'bridge to prosperity'
For years Aminat Waheeda drove her taxi along the narrow lanes and congested roads of the Maldives capital looking for passengers. The most lucrative fares - airport arrivals - were out of reach.
The airport serving Male is on a different island and a speedboat was needed to get between the two.
In 2018, that all changed, as did Ms Waheeda's life. And the single mother of two teenagers has China to thank.
A 2.1km (1.3-mile), four-lane bridge built with $200m (£148m) from Beijing means Male's taxi drivers can now pick up passengers right from the airport entrance.
"After the bridge was built, transportation got easy for everyone," she says. "[It] has helped taxi drivers like me to earn more money."
In fact, her income doubled.
The bridge, the first built between any islands in the Maldivian archipelago, has also led to a boom in new property and commercial developments on the island of Hulumale where the airport is located, easing congestion in the capital for its 140,000 residents.
Chinese infrastructure projects in developing countries have been criticised, but the Sinamale bridge - or the China-Maldives Friendship Bridge as it's also known - could be seen as a real success.
However the current Maldives government doesn't see it that way. It is alarmed by how much money this tiny, tourism-dependent nation now owes China.
The bridge was one of several major projects built under Abdullah Yameen, a pro-China president elected in 2013. He wanted to kickstart the economy and borrowed hundreds of millions of dollars from China to do so.
At the time Chinese President Xi Jinping was embarking on his grand "Belt and Road Initiative" to build road, rail and sea links between China and the rest of Asia, and far further beyond.
Mr Yameen's tenure was also marked by allegations of human rights abuses, which he denies. Many opposition politicians, including the former president Mohamed Nasheed, were jailed.
But in September 2018, weeks after the bridge opened, Mr Yameen suffered a surprise election defeat to his rivals, the Maldivian Democratic Party, with the MDP's Ibrahim Solih becoming president.
The change of guard also enabled Mr Nasheed to return and re-enter politics.
The new government soon began looking into the nation's finances. What they found shocked them.
"The [Chinese debt] bill was $3.1bn," Mr Nasheed, now Speaker of parliament, told me. The figure included government-to-government loans, money given to state enterprises and private sector loans guaranteed by the Maldivian government.
He is worried his country walked into a debt trap.
"Can these assets produce enough revenue to pay back the debt? The business plan of none of these projects has any indication to suggest that it will be able to pay back the loan."
He argues the cost of projects was inflated and the debt on paper is far greater than the money actually received - which he says was only $1.1bn, although he hasn't released documents to back up his sums.
Former Maldivian officials and Chinese representatives point out his lack of detailed accounting. They put the figure Male owes China between $1.1bn and $1.4bn - still a huge sum for the islands.
The Maldives GDP is around $4.9bn and if you go by Mr Nasheed's figures, then the debt is more than a half of the country's annual economic output. If government revenues fall it may struggle to repay the loan by 2022-23.
If the Maldives defaults, Mr Nasheed worries his country could face the same fate as nearby Sri Lanka - it owes billions of dollars to China after borrowing to rebuild after years of civil war.
Among the projects, the Sri Lankan government spent nearly $1.5bn on building a port in Hambantota. But within a few years the port proved to be economically unviable and Colombo defaulted on its loan commitment.
After the debt was restructured, a Chinese state-run enterprise acquired a 70% stake in the port on a 99-year lease in 2017. In addition, Sri Lanka also agreed to give 15,000 acres around the port to China to build an economic zone.
For China, the port is a valuable strategic asset overlooking one of the busiest shipping lanes in the Indian Ocean. The port is also a few hundred kilometres off the southern coast of China's rival, India.
Last year US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo hit out at China for what he described as "corrupt infrastructure deals in exchange for political influence" and using "bribe-fuelled debt-trap diplomacy".
Beijing rejected his comments as "irresponsible".
In a rare BBC interview, the Chinese ambassador in Male, Zhang Lizhong, also dismissed the allegations that the Maldives were facing a debt trap as "a fiction".
"China never imposes additional requirements to the Maldivian side or any other developing country, which they do not want to accept or against their will."
Mr Zhang says Mr Nasheed's figure of $3bn debt is "highly exaggerated".
The Maldives is famous as a picture-perfect tourist destination - but the archipelago is also strategically located, with islands dotted across the northern Indian Ocean. Tens of thousands of oil tankers and ships criss-cross the route.
India and China have been vying for influence in the region for years.
Some argue that some of the big-ticket infrastructure projects, like the expansion of the airport built with Chinese loans during Mr Yameen's time in power, have helped to boost tourist arrivals in the Maldives. They point out that it was difficult to get the money for the projects from other international players.
"I think at that time there was not any other option," says Ali Hashim, the governor of the Maldivian Monetary Authority, the islands' central bank which regulates its financial sector.
He points out "other countries in the region as well as faraway [countries] were quite reluctant to lend to the government because the institutions that controlled the whole process were being slowly compromised".
The projects have boosted tourist arrivals in the country - last year they reached a record 1.7 million, earning more than $2bn.
One of the main reasons behind growing tourism, is that successive Maldivian governments have encouraged investments in new islands.
Rules on foreign investments were relaxed to build more resorts and hotels. Hundreds of millions of dollars poured in from Indian, Thai and Chinese investors.
Mr Nasheed says he's concerned about Chinese investments in several islands where resorts and hotels are being built which have both Maldivian and Chinese partners.
"It is very easy to see these Maldivian partners don't have necessary finance to be able to be a partner in such a venture, So, the Chinese partners would buy it out in no time. I can see the islands going to them very quickly," Mr Nasheed says.
But Ambassador Zhang dismisses this, arguing the investments are purely commercial.
"Mr Speaker may not get the right information," he says. "We do not attach any pre-condition for the loans. It doesn't happen and will not happen."
Former president Abdullah Yameen's People's National Congress is also scathing about Mr Nasheed's allegations, calling them "baseless fear-mongering".
"Not a single island was given to the Chinese," party vice president Mohammad Hussain Shareef says.
Late last year Mr Yameen was sentenced to five years in prison on charges of money laundering. His party described it as a political vendetta.
The fears over debt are not restricted to the Maldives. Other countries in Asia have also been reviewing mega projects funded under China's Belt and Road Initiative.
Last year, after a change of government, Malaysia renegotiated a Chinese-funded railway project, bringing the cost down by a third to $11bn.
In 2018, Myanmar reviewed a Chinese-funded multi-billion dollar deep-sea port project and scaled it down to three-quarters of the original cost, fearing the loan would be unrepayable.
The Maldives is not Malaysia or Myanmar and its bargaining power is limited.
It's heavily reliant on tourism, which has been hit hard by the coronavirus outbreak. Foreign tourist arrivals were down 55% by the end of June. Estimates suggest the country may lose more than $700m, more than a third of its tourism income, this year if the pandemic persists.
Officials in Male say Beijing has agreed to partially suspend debt repayments because of the pandemic.
But even so, it's unchartered financial territory for the Maldives which must hope its borrowing has not mortgaged its future.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-52743072
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