Trump대통령이 맘만 먹으면, 24시간내에 북한을 초토화 시킬수 있는 군사력은 충분히 갖추고 있다고 생각된다. 그러나 김정은이의 막가파식 조롱과 공갈이 무서워서 그러한 군사행동을 못하는것은 아니라고 생각된다. 이유는 전쟁을 시작하면, 승자나 패자나 다 손실이 크다는점이 트럼프의 공격명령을 내리는 Trigger를 당기는데...고민이 있는것으로 이해된다.
지구상에는 2종류의 공산주의 국가군이 있다. 그중의 하나는 중국, 베트남, 큐바처럼 공산주의 정치체제를 유지하면서도, 경제발전을 꾀하기위해 과감하게 서방세계의 시장경제정책을 채택하여 모든 개인들이 능력껏 재능을 발휘하여 경제적 부를 쌓게하는 제도로, 국가주석을 중심으로 Inner Circle Member 들이 합의체를 운영하여, 정부가 경제정책을 시민들에게 맡기는, 한정된 자유를 부여하는 체제로, 이들 나라들의 경제발전은 전세계가 놀랄정도로 발전하여, 중국의 경우는 일본을 제치고, 지구상에서 GDP가 미국다음으로 현제 2위를 지키고 있는 정도로 발전하고 있다.
또 다른 하나는, 지금은 없어졌지만, 옛날 동독이나 현재의 북한 김정은 독재체제처럼, 수령제도를 채택하여, 모든 권력을 혼자 손에 쥐고, 경제발전은 뒷전이고, 국민들을 배고픔에 시달리게 해서, 수령의 명령에 따라 먹거리를 손에 쥘수있게 배급제도를 운용하여, 소나 말처럼 마음데로 부려서 마음데로 움직이게 하는 특수공산정부다. 그래서 이북한정권은 절대로 시장경제를 받아들여, 경제 부흥을 꾀하지 않는 세계유일의 공산정부다.
https://lifemeansgo.blogspot.com/2019/11/blog-post_30.html
트럼프의 대북정책은, 우선 북의 김정은 Regime이 먼저 비핵화를 선언 실행하는 협약을 이 행하면, 경제적 봉쇄를 풀고, 모든 지원을 해서, 북한 주민들이 잘살수 있는 경제지원을 해서, 궁극적으로는 중국과 베트남처럼 경제개발을 돕겠다는 주장이다. 그런 미국의 대북한 정책을 실현시키기위해 밀고 당기는 게임을 하다보니 벌써 연말이 되고, 약속했던 Dead Line이 임박한것에 트럼프도 심적 압박이 느끼는것 같다.
북한의 김 정은 Regime은, 위에서도 언급했지만, 수령통치하의 일인 독재정부를 운영하면서, 미국과 협상에 응하고, 비핵화협약을 이행하는 조건으로 2번에 걸쳐 미북정상회담을 하면서, 비핵화의 의지를 천명하하고, 협약이행을 하겠다는 약속을 했었지만, 한손으로는 미국의 경제적 원조를, 다른 한손으로는 시간을 벌면서, 비핵화대신, 핵무기를 개발하고 탄도미사일을 개발하여, 협약을 어기면서 마음데로 불법 핵실험과 탄도미사일을 공해상으로 발사하여, 미국을 비롯한 서방세계, 심지어 동맹국 중국과 러시아까지 고개를 절 래 절대 흔들 정도로 무법자의 길을 걷다보니, 벌써 Dead Line으로 정해놓은 마감시간이 금년말로 끝나는데, 정상회담에서 합의한 비핵화의 진전이 전연없었다는 점에 심적 압박이 조금은 되어서인지? 미국에, 시정 잡배들도 잘사용하지않는 저질 공갈협박을 쏟아내고있다. 그러면서도 김정은 역시 Dead Line으로 정해놓은 연말이 코앞이다 보니 심적 압박이 온몸을 짖누르는것을 느끼는 모양이다.
이대로 시간이 흐르면, 미국의 다음 수순이 어떻게 북한을 압박해 놓을지가 무척 두렵기는 할것이다. 요즘 한반도 상공에는 미국의 최신예 폭격기들이 쉬지않고 선회하면서 무력시위를 과시하는것을 보는 김정은과 그하수인들의 마음은 속으로는 안절부절 할것이다.
이와중에서 한국의 문재인은 Mediator를 자청하면서, 김정은과 평화협정을 맺고, 금방이라도 한반도에 평화가 올것처럼, 국민들에게 사기를 치면서, 휴전선에 설치해놓은, 북한군의 침략을 막기위한 모든 방어설비를 철거까지 시켰었지만, 문재인정권은 김정 은과 트럼프로 부터 완전 왕따당해 이들사이에서 존재감마져 없어진지 오래다. 죄없는 국민들만 불안의 피땀을 흘리면서 또 한해를 마감하고 있는 현실에... 국가를 지키겠다는 보수성향의 국민들은 추위를 무릅쓰고, 주말이면 광화문 광장에서, "문통이 바른길로 국가를 운영하라" 목이 터져라 외쳐대고 있지만 오늘 현재까지 마의 동풍일 뿐이다.
President Donald Trump and North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong Un are both facing substantial pressure to come up with some sort of agreement to advance their historic denuclearization-for-peace process by the end of the year, but experts feared a more dangerous outcome as both sides only ratcheted up tensions in the final weeks of 2019.
North Korea, whose young ruler set the year-end deadline for a deal back in April, has been noticeably running out of patience as state media broadcast increasingly stern warnings against moves viewed as provocative on the U.S.' part. After Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called on the international community to enforce sanctions in response to North Korea's nuclear and conventional weapons program at Tuesday's United Nations Security Council meeting, Pyongyang hit back with what may be its most serious retort yet.
"We have nothing to lose more, and we are ready to take a countermeasure corresponding to anything that the U.S. opts for," the official Korean Central News Agency cited a North Korean Foreign Ministry spokesperson as saying. "By holding the meeting, the U.S. did a foolish thing which will boomerang on it, and decisively helped us make a definite decision on what way to choose."
Vice Foreign Minister Ri Thae Song warned last week that it's up to the U.S. which "Christmas gift" it will receive this holiday season and signs are mounting that an exasperated Kim was soon ready to break his self-imposed moratorium on testing nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles.
"The chances are 100 percent that North Korea will do something that is escalatory—the questions is what," Harry Kazianis, senior director of the Center for the National Interest's Korean Studies program, told Newsweek.
"If Kim tests a nuclear weapon or military-grade ICBM, then President Trump will feel personally insulted, that Kim broke a personal pledge to him," he added. "That means get ready for maximum pressure 2.0: More sanctions, more nasty tweets and threats of nuclear war. And this time there is no natural off-ramp like the 2018 winter games in South Korea, where all sides had a reason to back off."
The 2018 Winter Olympic Games in Pyeongchang served as the basis for Kim's outreach to South Korean President Moon Jae-in, an overture that ultimately led to inter-Korean peace talks and direct dialogue with the U.S. The unprecedented warming in rhetoric between the longtime foes came after a year of nuclear-fueled tensions in 2017, but a failure to attain an agreement despite three successive summits between Trump and Kim could mean a return to flaring tensions, or worse.
But this would probably prove a disappointment for both men, who have set out to make history by bringing together two nations still technically at war since the 1950s conflict that helped set off the Cold War. As the days of December wear on, United States Institute of Peace senior North Korea expert Frank Aum said both men were likely under stress.
"Kim probably feels a certain amount of pressure to get tangible results with regard to sanctions relief and improved US-DPRK relations. He has promised his people that they would no longer need to engage in belt-tightening and that the regime would make strides in economic development. In addition, he has expended personal capital since early 2018 to engage diplomatically with Washington and Seoul," Aum, who served as the Pentagon's senior adviser for North Korea from 2012 to 2017, told Newsweek.
He said an ICBM or nuclear test could hinder ties to North Korea's only real economic lifeline, China. Though Pyongyang under Kim has experienced somewhat chillier ties with Beijing than under his predecessors, Pyongyang ultimately relied on its neighbor for tourism, food assistance and alleged sanctions-defying trade, meaning "Kim is certainly weighing the various factors involved and is still open to reaching a deal by year's end," according to Aum.
Thousands of miles away—but within range of North Korea's ICBMs—the White House too was likely feeling a need to produce results, especially amid North Korean reports Sunday of a "very important test" at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station, further evidence Kim may be gearing up for his first ICBM test since November 2017, or another type of space launch.
"I think President Trump also feels a certain amount of pressure to reach a deal with North Korea. He wants to be able to tout a foreign policy victory and avoid a major North Korean provocation during an election year," Aum said, noting, however, that "it's very unlikely, if not impossible, for another US-DPRK summit before the end of the year" due to the sheer logistics of planning such an event.
Kazianis agreed, saying, "Trump would surely want a big foreign policy accomplishment before the 2020 election cycle, and North Korea could be that accomplishment." At the same time, "if Kim's new path heads skyward thanks to an ICBM test, then 2020 will most likely mean the worst U.S.-North Korea crisis in living memory," he argued. "Kim must choose wisely."
The turning point for what was a budding detente between Washington and Pyongyang appeared to be their second bilateral summit that took place in February in the Vietnamese capital of Hanoi. Many observers, including Kazianis, predicted some sort of agreement would be reached until Trump abruptly walked away from talks in a tactic many at the time blamed on then-national security adviser John Bolton.
Even after Bolton's dismissal in September, the Trump administration appeared to maintain its hard-line stance toward negotiations and, despite a meeting at the inter-Korean border between Trump, Kim and Moon in June, it was North Korea that ended November's working-level talks early in Sweden. The Pyongyang delegation argued that Washington had failed to budge on its previous terms in ridding North Korea of the weapons of mass destruction the country holds so dear to its self-defense.
What exactly was on the table has never been officially confirmed, but Aum laid out what he called "the contours of an interim deal."
"North Korea would shut down and allow inspectors at its main nuclear facility at Yongbyon, its main nuclear test site at Punggye-ri, and its missile engine test site at Dongchang-ri," he explained. "The U.S. would agree to an 'end of war' declaration, provide humanitarian assistance, exchange liaison offices, enhance people-to-people exchanges, and continue a reduced level of joint U.S.-ROK military exercises."
"Both sides just need to be a little more flexible on the hard points," Aum said, arguing North Korea could accept more in terms of denuclearizing measures and a freezing missile and nuclear activities, while the U.S. could go further in partial sanctions relief and reducing military moves in the region.
"The deal is there for the taking!" Aum added.
https://www.newsweek.com/trump-kim-year-end-pressure-new-tensions-1477022
https://www.newsweek.com/south-korea-calls-us-keep-pushing-peace-kim-jong-uns-deal-deadline-set-pass-1477501
지구상에는 2종류의 공산주의 국가군이 있다. 그중의 하나는 중국, 베트남, 큐바처럼 공산주의 정치체제를 유지하면서도, 경제발전을 꾀하기위해 과감하게 서방세계의 시장경제정책을 채택하여 모든 개인들이 능력껏 재능을 발휘하여 경제적 부를 쌓게하는 제도로, 국가주석을 중심으로 Inner Circle Member 들이 합의체를 운영하여, 정부가 경제정책을 시민들에게 맡기는, 한정된 자유를 부여하는 체제로, 이들 나라들의 경제발전은 전세계가 놀랄정도로 발전하여, 중국의 경우는 일본을 제치고, 지구상에서 GDP가 미국다음으로 현제 2위를 지키고 있는 정도로 발전하고 있다.
또 다른 하나는, 지금은 없어졌지만, 옛날 동독이나 현재의 북한 김정은 독재체제처럼, 수령제도를 채택하여, 모든 권력을 혼자 손에 쥐고, 경제발전은 뒷전이고, 국민들을 배고픔에 시달리게 해서, 수령의 명령에 따라 먹거리를 손에 쥘수있게 배급제도를 운용하여, 소나 말처럼 마음데로 부려서 마음데로 움직이게 하는 특수공산정부다. 그래서 이북한정권은 절대로 시장경제를 받아들여, 경제 부흥을 꾀하지 않는 세계유일의 공산정부다.
https://lifemeansgo.blogspot.com/2019/11/blog-post_30.html
트럼프의 대북정책은, 우선 북의 김정은 Regime이 먼저 비핵화를 선언 실행하는 협약을 이 행하면, 경제적 봉쇄를 풀고, 모든 지원을 해서, 북한 주민들이 잘살수 있는 경제지원을 해서, 궁극적으로는 중국과 베트남처럼 경제개발을 돕겠다는 주장이다. 그런 미국의 대북한 정책을 실현시키기위해 밀고 당기는 게임을 하다보니 벌써 연말이 되고, 약속했던 Dead Line이 임박한것에 트럼프도 심적 압박이 느끼는것 같다.
북한의 김 정은 Regime은, 위에서도 언급했지만, 수령통치하의 일인 독재정부를 운영하면서, 미국과 협상에 응하고, 비핵화협약을 이행하는 조건으로 2번에 걸쳐 미북정상회담을 하면서, 비핵화의 의지를 천명하하고, 협약이행을 하겠다는 약속을 했었지만, 한손으로는 미국의 경제적 원조를, 다른 한손으로는 시간을 벌면서, 비핵화대신, 핵무기를 개발하고 탄도미사일을 개발하여, 협약을 어기면서 마음데로 불법 핵실험과 탄도미사일을 공해상으로 발사하여, 미국을 비롯한 서방세계, 심지어 동맹국 중국과 러시아까지 고개를 절 래 절대 흔들 정도로 무법자의 길을 걷다보니, 벌써 Dead Line으로 정해놓은 마감시간이 금년말로 끝나는데, 정상회담에서 합의한 비핵화의 진전이 전연없었다는 점에 심적 압박이 조금은 되어서인지? 미국에, 시정 잡배들도 잘사용하지않는 저질 공갈협박을 쏟아내고있다. 그러면서도 김정은 역시 Dead Line으로 정해놓은 연말이 코앞이다 보니 심적 압박이 온몸을 짖누르는것을 느끼는 모양이다.
이대로 시간이 흐르면, 미국의 다음 수순이 어떻게 북한을 압박해 놓을지가 무척 두렵기는 할것이다. 요즘 한반도 상공에는 미국의 최신예 폭격기들이 쉬지않고 선회하면서 무력시위를 과시하는것을 보는 김정은과 그하수인들의 마음은 속으로는 안절부절 할것이다.
이와중에서 한국의 문재인은 Mediator를 자청하면서, 김정은과 평화협정을 맺고, 금방이라도 한반도에 평화가 올것처럼, 국민들에게 사기를 치면서, 휴전선에 설치해놓은, 북한군의 침략을 막기위한 모든 방어설비를 철거까지 시켰었지만, 문재인정권은 김정 은과 트럼프로 부터 완전 왕따당해 이들사이에서 존재감마져 없어진지 오래다. 죄없는 국민들만 불안의 피땀을 흘리면서 또 한해를 마감하고 있는 현실에... 국가를 지키겠다는 보수성향의 국민들은 추위를 무릅쓰고, 주말이면 광화문 광장에서, "문통이 바른길로 국가를 운영하라" 목이 터져라 외쳐대고 있지만 오늘 현재까지 마의 동풍일 뿐이다.
President Donald Trump and North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong Un are both facing substantial pressure to come up with some sort of agreement to advance their historic denuclearization-for-peace process by the end of the year, but experts feared a more dangerous outcome as both sides only ratcheted up tensions in the final weeks of 2019.
North Korea, whose young ruler set the year-end deadline for a deal back in April, has been noticeably running out of patience as state media broadcast increasingly stern warnings against moves viewed as provocative on the U.S.' part. After Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called on the international community to enforce sanctions in response to North Korea's nuclear and conventional weapons program at Tuesday's United Nations Security Council meeting, Pyongyang hit back with what may be its most serious retort yet.
"We have nothing to lose more, and we are ready to take a countermeasure corresponding to anything that the U.S. opts for," the official Korean Central News Agency cited a North Korean Foreign Ministry spokesperson as saying. "By holding the meeting, the U.S. did a foolish thing which will boomerang on it, and decisively helped us make a definite decision on what way to choose."
Vice Foreign Minister Ri Thae Song warned last week that it's up to the U.S. which "Christmas gift" it will receive this holiday season and signs are mounting that an exasperated Kim was soon ready to break his self-imposed moratorium on testing nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles.
"The chances are 100 percent that North Korea will do something that is escalatory—the questions is what," Harry Kazianis, senior director of the Center for the National Interest's Korean Studies program, told Newsweek.
"If Kim tests a nuclear weapon or military-grade ICBM, then President Trump will feel personally insulted, that Kim broke a personal pledge to him," he added. "That means get ready for maximum pressure 2.0: More sanctions, more nasty tweets and threats of nuclear war. And this time there is no natural off-ramp like the 2018 winter games in South Korea, where all sides had a reason to back off."
The 2018 Winter Olympic Games in Pyeongchang served as the basis for Kim's outreach to South Korean President Moon Jae-in, an overture that ultimately led to inter-Korean peace talks and direct dialogue with the U.S. The unprecedented warming in rhetoric between the longtime foes came after a year of nuclear-fueled tensions in 2017, but a failure to attain an agreement despite three successive summits between Trump and Kim could mean a return to flaring tensions, or worse.
But this would probably prove a disappointment for both men, who have set out to make history by bringing together two nations still technically at war since the 1950s conflict that helped set off the Cold War. As the days of December wear on, United States Institute of Peace senior North Korea expert Frank Aum said both men were likely under stress.
"Kim probably feels a certain amount of pressure to get tangible results with regard to sanctions relief and improved US-DPRK relations. He has promised his people that they would no longer need to engage in belt-tightening and that the regime would make strides in economic development. In addition, he has expended personal capital since early 2018 to engage diplomatically with Washington and Seoul," Aum, who served as the Pentagon's senior adviser for North Korea from 2012 to 2017, told Newsweek.
He said an ICBM or nuclear test could hinder ties to North Korea's only real economic lifeline, China. Though Pyongyang under Kim has experienced somewhat chillier ties with Beijing than under his predecessors, Pyongyang ultimately relied on its neighbor for tourism, food assistance and alleged sanctions-defying trade, meaning "Kim is certainly weighing the various factors involved and is still open to reaching a deal by year's end," according to Aum.
Thousands of miles away—but within range of North Korea's ICBMs—the White House too was likely feeling a need to produce results, especially amid North Korean reports Sunday of a "very important test" at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station, further evidence Kim may be gearing up for his first ICBM test since November 2017, or another type of space launch.
"I think President Trump also feels a certain amount of pressure to reach a deal with North Korea. He wants to be able to tout a foreign policy victory and avoid a major North Korean provocation during an election year," Aum said, noting, however, that "it's very unlikely, if not impossible, for another US-DPRK summit before the end of the year" due to the sheer logistics of planning such an event.
Kazianis agreed, saying, "Trump would surely want a big foreign policy accomplishment before the 2020 election cycle, and North Korea could be that accomplishment." At the same time, "if Kim's new path heads skyward thanks to an ICBM test, then 2020 will most likely mean the worst U.S.-North Korea crisis in living memory," he argued. "Kim must choose wisely."
The turning point for what was a budding detente between Washington and Pyongyang appeared to be their second bilateral summit that took place in February in the Vietnamese capital of Hanoi. Many observers, including Kazianis, predicted some sort of agreement would be reached until Trump abruptly walked away from talks in a tactic many at the time blamed on then-national security adviser John Bolton.
Even after Bolton's dismissal in September, the Trump administration appeared to maintain its hard-line stance toward negotiations and, despite a meeting at the inter-Korean border between Trump, Kim and Moon in June, it was North Korea that ended November's working-level talks early in Sweden. The Pyongyang delegation argued that Washington had failed to budge on its previous terms in ridding North Korea of the weapons of mass destruction the country holds so dear to its self-defense.
What exactly was on the table has never been officially confirmed, but Aum laid out what he called "the contours of an interim deal."
"North Korea would shut down and allow inspectors at its main nuclear facility at Yongbyon, its main nuclear test site at Punggye-ri, and its missile engine test site at Dongchang-ri," he explained. "The U.S. would agree to an 'end of war' declaration, provide humanitarian assistance, exchange liaison offices, enhance people-to-people exchanges, and continue a reduced level of joint U.S.-ROK military exercises."
"Both sides just need to be a little more flexible on the hard points," Aum said, arguing North Korea could accept more in terms of denuclearizing measures and a freezing missile and nuclear activities, while the U.S. could go further in partial sanctions relief and reducing military moves in the region.
"The deal is there for the taking!" Aum added.
https://www.newsweek.com/trump-kim-year-end-pressure-new-tensions-1477022
https://www.newsweek.com/south-korea-calls-us-keep-pushing-peace-kim-jong-uns-deal-deadline-set-pass-1477501
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