힐라리 미국무장관이 멕시코방문시, 멕시코의 외무장관과 공동기자회견 석상에서 "북한의 미사일 발사는 악의적인 행위"라고 경고하는 모습이다.
북한이 국제적으로 비난을 받고 있는 속에서 4월초에 이사일을 발사할 것이라고 밀어 부치고 있다. 뭘 얻겠다고.
그돈으로, 굶주려 죽는 광경이 거의 매일 전세계 뉴스 미디아를 통해서 알려지고 있는 북한 동포들을 먹여 살리는데 썼으면 위대한 지도자라고 칭송을 들으련만 .... 꼭 생긴 모습데로 놀아나는 김정일을 보면, 미워하기전에 그자신이 너무나 불쌍해 보인다. 배는 툭 튀어나오고, 키는 난쟁이 똥자루만하고...입고있는 옷은 꼭 모자란 사내들이 입고 있는 모습으로 옷만 걸치고 있는 꼬락서니 하고서는.....
북한은 지난 반세기 동안,미사일 개발로 이웃 나라들을 수도 없이 괴롭혀 오고 있으며, 이번에 발사하는 미사일은, 북한은 통신위성을
발사하는 것이라고 우기고 있지만, 한국을 비롯한 서방세계는 이를 믿지 않고, 더욱히 미국의 정보 당국과 개인적으로 북한을 연구하고
있는 전문가들의 걱정은 북한이 미사일발사의 기술 향상으로 핵무기를 올려놓고 발사하는 점이라고 한다.
북한을 공산국가로 창설한 독재자 김일성은 44년전 부터 군사전문학교를 세워 그곳에서 이사일개발기술을 연구토록해서, 무기로 사용할
경우 이웃 일본과 미국이 한반도 정책을 간섭하는것을 막을수 있는것으로 생각해 오고 있었다.
그의 아들 김정일은 미사일제조 과학자들을 양성하여 그들로 하여금 전일본을 초토화 시킬수 있는 200개 이상의 노동미사일을 만들었다고 한다. 김정일 정권은 한국과 일본이 계속해서 북한의 미사일 발사를 항의해 오고 있지만, 이를 무시하고 계속해서 그들의 신경을 건드리기를 계속하고 있다. 남한과 일본의 정부는 북한 정권이 핵무기를 소형화 하는데 계속 실패 하고 있다고 주장과 걱정을 하고 있다고 한다.
누구를 위해서 김정일은 그따위 국제적 망나니짖을 계속진행 하는가? 그들 정권의 내부에서도 동요가 안일어 난다고
누가 확신하겠는가? 굶주린 북한 동포를 먹여 살리라고 허리띠를 졸라매면서, 천문학적인 돈과 곡물을 퍼다 주었건만, 그러한 염원은
헌신짝 처럼 버리고 그돈으로, 곡물로 개발한 미사일과 핵무기를 은인인 남한과 서방세계에 들이대고 있는것이다.
이번 4월초에 발사하게 되는 이북의 미사일 발사에 대비하여 한국을 비롯한 미국과 일본은 군함을 동해에 급파하여 추이를 확인중에 있는데
김정일 집단이 주장하는데 통신위성발사가 아니고 장거리 미사일 발사로 확인될 경우, 격파용 미사일을 발사하여 공중 폭파 시키겠다고
대기상태에 있다고 발표했다. 세계경제는 끝이 보이지 않는 난간으로 곤두박질하고 있고, 그위에 북한주민은 초근목피도 못해
부드러운 진흙을 목구멍으로 넘긴다는데...... 아서라.... 이다음 세상에 가서 어떻게 그많은 영혼들을 대할려고 그러는지?
내 깨끗한 블로그에 이러한 내용을 올려야 하는 내 심정도 바위덩위에 눌려 있는것 이상으로 무겁기만 하다.
우리 조국의 운명은 언제 까지 김정일과 그세력들에 조종되여 져야 하는가? 우리 생전에 그끝이 보여야 할텐데....
North Korean Missile Launch Would Be a 'Provocactive Act'
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Wednesday warned North Korea that firing a missile for any purpose would be a "provocative act" that would have consequences.
By Blaine Harden
Washington Post Foreign Service
Friday, March 27, 2009;
SEOUL - North Korea moved a long-range missile to a launchpad this week and plans to send it into space in early April in defiance of repeated international warnings.
While North Korea has been making missiles to intimidate its neighbors for nearly half a century, what makes this launch particularly worrying is the increasing possibility -- as assessed by U.S. intelligence and some independent experts -- that it has built or is attempting to build nuclear warheads small enough to fit atop its growing number of missiles.
North Korea "may be able to successfully mate a nuclear warhead to a ballistic missile," Lt. Gen. Michael D. Maples, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said this month in testimony prepared for the Senate Armed Services Committee.
David Albright, a physicist and nuclear weapons expert who runs the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security, has written that North Korea is "likely able to build a crude nuclear warhead" for its midrange missiles that target Japan.
Experts agree that North Korea is probably years away from putting nuclear warheads on long-range missiles that could hit the United States.
"North Korea's nuclear strategy is to keep everyone confused, keep everyone wondering," Albright said.
The country's founding dictator, the late Kim Il Sung, created a military academy 44 years ago to "nurture" missile builders, ordering them to make weapons that could strike Japan and "prevent" the United States from meddling on the Korean Peninsula.
Kim's son and successor, Kim Jong Il, has continued to nurture the missilemakers, who have built more than 200 Nodong missiles capable of hitting most of Japan.
The Kim dynasty's commitment to missiles continues to rattle nerves, with Japan and South Korea repeatedly protesting as North Korea moves closer to the planned launch of its new long-range missile.
North Korea says it plans to put a communications satellite into orbit, but that claim is widely viewed as a pretext for testing an intercontinental ballistic missile, the Taepodong-2. The U.S. director of national intelligence, Dennis C. Blair, told a Senate committee that a three-stage missile of this type, if it works, could strike the continental United States.
"Most of the world understands the game they're playing," Blair said, adding that North Korea "risks international opprobrium and hopefully worse" if the launch proceeds.
If the international community sanctions North Korea for the launch, Pyongyang threatened this week to abrogate an agreement with the United States and five other countries to abandon nuclear weapons in return for aid and other concessions. It has also threatened to go to war, if what it calls its peaceful research launch is shot down.
North Korea exploded a small nuclear device in 2006 and has since declared it has "weaponized" its entire plutonium stockpile, which it says totals 57 pounds -- enough, experts say, to build four or five bombs. But it is another major technical step to miniaturize these bombs for missile delivery. Scientists and governments disagree about how far North Korea has gone toward this goal.
The governments of South Korea and Japan both say North Korea has not succeeded in miniaturizing nuclear warheads.
But Japan's Defense Ministry has concluded that the North may be getting close. "We cannot deny that North Korea will probably be able to do that in a short period of time," said Atsuo Suzuki, director of the ministry's defense intelligence division. And South Korea's foreign minister, Yu Myung-hwan, told reporters that North Korea's push to develop "long-range missile capability after a nuclear test is literally [making] weapons of mass destruction."
North Korea's test of a nuclear device in 2006 produced such a small explosion that it was probably only a partial success, according to Theodore Postol, a professor of science, technology and national security policy at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Based on this one test of a nuclear device, Postol said, it is "not credible" that North Korea could have succeeded in less than three years in miniaturizing "an advance design" nuclear warhead. But he said there is a remote possibility that North Korea has made a warhead of an untested crude design that could produce a relatively small nuclear explosion, akin to its 2006 test. It would be the equivalent of exploding several hundred tons of TNT, as compared with the exponentially more destructive 25-kiloton blast of an advanced nuclear warhead.
Postol estimates that it is possible for North Korea to make a warhead that is small and light enough to be mounted on a Nodong missile, which has a diameter of about four feet and can carry a payload of about 2,200 pounds. "It would be a very inefficient way to use a weapon," he said. "But if you are desperate enough, I think such a weapon would certainly have deterrent capability. Tokyo is a large enough target to be relatively sure that a non-full-yield weapon would still cause tremendous death and destruction."
'They Want Rewards'
North Korea's missiles are inaccurate and decades out of date by the rocket-science standards of the United States, Russia and China. Most of its more than 800 missiles are believed to be modified versions of the Scud, a Soviet-era weapon with rocket motors and guidance systems that date from the 1950s.
The Scud was never intended to be a precision weapon. Iraq's Saddam Hussein sprayed dozens of them around Israel in the Persian Gulf War to terrorize civilians and provoke the government. Similarly, pinpoint accuracy is hardly the point of North Korea's missile program, analysts say.
"Even with very low accuracy, that is sufficient to create fear in civilian society," said Cha Du-hyeogn, a research fellow at the government-funded Korea Institute for Defense Analyses in Seoul. "The leaders of North Korea are not madmen. They have their own reasoning. They want attention, and they want rewards for not using these weapons."
Missilemaking in North Korea has been sufficiently menacing - and marketable - to qualify as one of the few successful industries in the history of the secretive communist country, where a command-style economy has largely collapsed and chronic food shortages cause widespread malnutrition. In 1999, the North halted missile tests to negotiate improved ties with the Clinton administration, but talks were suspended after the election of George W. Bush.
Despite its poverty, North Korea has made itself into the "greatest supplier of missiles, missile components and related technologies" in the developing world, according to a 2008 report for the U.S. Army War College's Strategic Studies Institute by Daniel A. Pinkston, a Seoul-based analyst with the International Crisis Group.
The North has sold missiles to Iran, Pakistan, Syria, Egypt, Libya and Yemen - and earned hundreds of millions of dollars, according to a 2006 report by the Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, Calif. The report says the North's "earliest and most loyal customer for missiles and missile technology has been Iran."
Last month, Iran launched a long-range Safir missile -- and succeeded in putting a small satellite into orbit -- using missile components and technical support supplied by North Korea, according to a draft report by Postol and several Russian weapons experts.
Similarly, Pakistan's mid-range Ghauri missile, which can carry a nuclear warhead, is actually a renamed North Korean Nodong, according to the Center for Nonproliferation Studies.
Making People 'Nervous'
North Korea, though, does not itself design or manufacture the critical missile components, such as rocket motors, that have allowed it to assemble and sell missiles for the past three decades, according to military analysts. Rather, its rapid development of five different missile systems between 1987 and 1992 was made possible by a massive spillage of parts, technology and human expertise out of the collapsing Soviet Union.
South Korea announced last month that the North has deployed a new midrange missile that can strike as far as 1,856 miles, allowing it to reach the U.S. territory of Guam. That missile is probably a modified version of a 1960s-era Soviet submarine-launched missile called the SS-N-6, according to Postol.
That missile uses a more powerful propellant and lighter alloys than previous Soviet-made weapons that have found their way to North Korea. Components from the SS-N-6 could provide substantially greater range and larger payloads to the North's multistage intercontinental ballistic missiles, Postol said.
North Korea terrified Japan and surprised the world in 1998 by launching a long-range missile that flew over Japan and into the Pacific.
Because another North Korean long-range test missile failed shortly after takeoff in 2006, Japan has purchased a Patriot missile-defense system to protect Tokyo and, with the United States, has deployed Aegis antiballistic missiles on destroyers in the Sea of Japan.
Japanese military officials say the two systems would probably not protect Japan completely if North Korea chose to launch a large number of Nodongs. But the Aegis systems, together with other U.S.-made anti-missile systems, could destroy in flight the missile that North Korea is planning to launch in April.
The head of the U.S. Pacific Command, Adm. Timothy J. Keating, told ABC News last month that if it appears North Korea is launching something other than a satellite, "we'll be ready to respond."
Since then, North Korea has warned that if its missile -- which it insists is a space launch with peaceful objectives -- is shot down, it will retaliate with massive power.
"Shooting our satellite for peaceful purposes will precisely mean a war," said a spokesman for the General Staff of the Korean People's Army.
"The North Koreans will not do anything that can expand into total war," said Song Young-sun, a South Korean lawmaker who worked for years as a missile analyst at a government-funded research institution in Seoul. They want attention, economic assistance and "to make people nervous," she said.
Staff writer Joby Warrick in Washington and special correspondents Stella Kim in Seoul and Akiko Yamamoto in Tokyo contributed to this report.
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