Wednesday, October 28, 2020

미국대선, 누가 이기든간에 김정은이는 골치아픈 존재일뿐이다., 우린 2년후의 문재인에 달려..


"미국대선, 누가 이기든간에 김정은이는 골치아픈 존재일뿐이다." 이주제가 미국 대선을 일주일 앞둔 시점에서 양진영에서 김정은 Regime에 대한 평가다. 여기에 문재인까지 김정은쪽에 기울어서, 어떻게 한반도 상황이 요동을 칠지, 완전 오리무중일 뿐인것 같다. 

죄없는 우리 국민들은 잘못 선택한 문달창의, 반미국정책, 친중국정책, 북한 김정은에 퍼주기 정책으로, 그렇치 않아도 경제적으로 골병들고 있는 상황에서, 천문학적인 새해예산안, 민주당 찌라시들이 권력폭거를 이용해서, 통과 시키면 새해에도 국민들의 얼굴에서는 주름살이 펴질날은 없을 것으로 짐작 되고, 이렇게 되면, 삼성에 상속세를 기한내에 납부하라고 족치고....걱정뿐이다.

핑계를 대고, 삼성에서 앞으로 먹거리 사업으로 Bio Tech개발에 몰두하는데, 수십번의 압수수색을 해서, 연구에 정진할수없도록 협박, 공갈까지 더해질텐데.... 생각만 해도 걱정이다. 문달창 정부의 악행은 그끝이 어디까지 일까? 삼성에서 혼신의 힘을 쏟아 개발하고 있는 생명공학이 도대체 왜 문달창 정부의 수사타켓이 되어야 하는가? 암튼 이번 상속세, Bio Tech등등의 이슈들이 무사히 잘 해결되야 할텐데...

오바마의 대북정책은 물러빠져서 8년간 그가 미국및 전세계를 통치하는 기간동안에, 북한은 절호의 찬스를 맞아, 맘먹은데로 대륙간 탄도미사일과 핵탄두개발을 거의다 완성하고 실전배치하여,지구반대편에 있는 미국의 심장부를 겨누도록 되기까지, 오바는 인권만 부르짖다 세월 다 보내고, 그렇게 어지러운 상태로 트럼프에 바톤을 인계 해주었었다.

세번의 정상회담을 했지만, 김정은이는 그가 한 약속, 즉 비핵화에 대한 실천을 헌신짝 버리듯, 되돌아서서는 딴소리를 계속해 왔다. 이런 와중에 미국의 혈맹이었던 대한민국의 문재인 정부는, 한번도 미국에 대해서 고맙다는 인사는 고사하고, 입만열면 중국우호정책, 김정은 Regime이 그어떤방법으로 대한민국에 손해를 끼치고, 재산을 부시고, 공무원을 총살시켜도, 항의 한번없이, 눈치 보기에만 급급해왔고..... 

도대체 김정은이에게 그어떤 죄를 젔기에, 아니면 그어떤 밀약을, 국민 몰래 했었기에, 휴전선 255킬로미터에 설치해놓고, 방어를 해왔던 온갖 장비및 설비를 철거 시키는, 바보짖을 하는지?  군을 지휘하는 별을 단, 명색이, 장군들은 전부 북괴군과 싸울 훈련을 하기 보다는 청와대에 안테나 마추어 놓고, 별하다 더 얹히고, 장관 하기위해 고군분투하는 꼬락서니만 국민들게 보여주니....국민들의 걱정은 더 커져만 간다.

여론조사에서 민주당의 Biden이 트럼프 대통령을 앞서가고 있는데, 이제 막상 승리를 앞둔상태에서 민주당이 김정은이에 대해서, 트럼프 대통령이 김정은에 대해, 강력히 대처해 왔던 정책이 옳았음을 인정하는 쪽으로 기울어, 앞으로 골치아픈 존재로 정의를 내리는것 같아 보인다.

트럼프 대통령이 백악관 입성한지 23일 됐을때, Mar-a-Lago별장에서, 당시 일본수상  Shinzo Abe와 마주앉아, 고급와인잔을 들이키면서 정책구상을 하는 그시간에, 김정은이는 고체연료를 장착한 대륙간 미사일이 성공적으로 대기권을 뚫고 날아가는 광경을 직접 즐기고 있었다.

그러나 미국조야는 김정은이가 미국와싱턴 정가에 대해 아주 조심스럽게 연구를 하고 있다는것을 잘 알고 있었지만, 또한 김정은 Regime은, 트럼프 대통령의 임기초와 오바마대통령 재직시에, 어떻게 하면 와싱턴 정가의 관심을 끌어낼수 있을까?를 잘알고 있었던것 같았다. 특히 미국이 대선을 치르는 기간을 놓치지 않고, 인종차별문제와 지구촌 전염병으로 정신없이 흔들리고 있을때를 이용하여 미국의 뒷덜미를 흔들기 할것을 선택한것으로 보인다 

이결과로 누가 이번 대선에서 승리하던 김정은이는 그들이 원하는 쪽으로 딜을 성사시키도록 미국을 몰아 부칠것으로 보인다.

이틈바구니에서 우리 대한민국의 선택이 아주 중요한 시기가 된다고 본다. 2년후에는 미국의 새로운 정부도, Trump든  Biden이든 정치적으로 안정된 시기에 접어들어, 동맹국에 대한 재정비도 궤도를 달릴 것이다. 다행히도 보수정부가 다시 정권을 잡으면 미국과의 혈맹, 동맹관계는 크게 마찰없이 문재인정부 이전에 즐겨왔던  혈맹관계를 복원하는데 큰 문제가 없을것이 거의 확실하지만, 불행하게도 국민들이 또 잘못선택하거나, 투표를 지난 4.15총선때 처럼 도둑맞으면, 한미간 혈맹 또는 동맹관계회복은 어쩌면 영원히 물건너 가는, 개인의 자유가 허용되지 않는 중국의 사회주의 또는 공산주의 국가로 전락하고 말것이다.  

이점이 무척이나 나라의 장래를 걱정하고, 나라의 경제회복을 걱정하는 많은 전문가들의 가슴을 답답하게 하는 요인이다. 


Hong Kong (CNN)As Barack Obama ended his 75th day as President of the United States, the engines of a massive North Korean rocket roared to life half a world away -- sparking one of the first major international crises of his administration.

Pyongyang's first missile test during Donald Trump's presidency came even sooner. On his 23rd day in office, as he and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe sat down for dinner on the terrace of the US President's opulent Florida club, Mar-a-Lago, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un oversaw the successful test launch of a solid-fueled ballistic missile.
So if former Vice President Joseph Biden were to unseat Trump in the November 3 presidential election, would North Korea again conduct some sort of provocation in a new administration's early days?
When it comes to divining North Korea's intentions, some words of wisdom variously attributed to both Mark Twain and New York Yankee's legend Yogi Berra ring particularly true: Predictions are hard, especially about the future.
    This is, after all, North Korea, one of the world's most isolated societies and secretive governments.
    But we do know that Pyongyang closely studies the machinations in Washington. And, as they proved during the early days of the Trump and Obama presidencies, Kim and his advisers know how to grab America's attention -- and they may choose to do so after taking the backseat to the US election, protests over racial injustice and a global pandemic.
    A Biden administration, or Trump during a second term, could be forced to deal with Pyongyang sooner than they'd like.

    Trump's tenure

    Disarming North Korea remains one of the United States' most intractable foreign policy issues. Since 2006, Pyongyang has successfully tested six nuclear devices and three intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), weapons Kim says are meant to deter foreign aggression and ensure the continuity of the regime that he leads with an iron fist.
    The country's dogged pursuit of these armaments, however, has come at a tremendous cost. Sanctions punishing Pyongyang for its nuclear program essentially bar North Korea -- one of the world's poorest countries -- from trading with the outside world. That means there are few opportunities for North Korea to improve its economy and increase the livelihood of its people, a key promise Kim has made to his people.
    The US hoped that sanctions would cripple North Korea and force Kim to negotiate. And President Trump had hoped that by becoming the first sitting president to sit face-to-face with a North Korean leader, he could engineer some sort of breakthrough. But despite these one-on-ones, negotiations have been at an impasse since the two leaders' second summit in 2019 in Hanoi.
    Trump wanted some sort of "big deal" that would see North Korea give up its nuclear program for immediate sanctions relief, but Kim was only prepared to shut down Yongbyon, the biggest and best-known facility in North Korea that produced fissile material for nuclear weapons, in exchange for sanctions relief, according to Trump's former national security adviser, John Bolton.
    That wasn't enough for Trump, so he walked.
    "There were opportunities potentially having a direct engagement between the leaders but, as things showed, it wasn't a silver bullet to resolve the issues," said Markus Garlauskas, a former national intelligence officer for North Korea on the US' National Intelligence Council.
    Hanoi, Garlauskas said, proved that it wasn't a lack of communication or leader-to-leader contact that had prevented a breakthrough.
    The "fundamental obstacle," he said, is "Kim's lack of interest in giving up those nuclear weapons, and his willingness to sustain very high cost to keep them."

    Communicate early, communicate often

    To date, the Trump administration has sold its North Korea policy as a win. That's because since November 2017, Kim has not tested any nuclear weapons or long-range missiles -- the weapons designed to deliver a nuclear warhead to the United States homeland.
    During their first summit, Trump and Kim struck what appeared to be a tacit agreement that, as long as talks were going on, North Korea would not test ICBMs or nuclear bombs. Trump, in turn, scaled down the number of military drills the US conducts with South Korea. These exercises are meant to keep troops ready in case of conflict, but North Korea sees them as hostile and will often claim they are practice for an invasion.
    The accord, however, did not apply to shorter-range missiles that could be used to target US troops or allies in the region, which North Korea has continued to test. And Pyongyang made no commitment to stop developing or enhancing its weaponry in ways short of testing them.
    On October 10, North Korea rolled out what is believed to be one of the world's biggest ICBMs at a military parade on a significant anniversary in Pyongyang. Weapons experts said it appeared the gigantic missile was designed to carry multiple warheads to penetrate missile defense systems -- proving that North Korea's commitment to stop testing ICBMs didn't mean it wasn't going to stop working on them.
    If North Korea was to consider this new missile viable, it would need to conduct a test launch. Though Kim pledged not to test ICBMs during US negotiations, he said in a speech last year that he no longer felt duty-bound to comply with the promise. He has blamed the US for the diplomatic impasse and says it has been "deceived by the US," wasting 18 months on talks.
    Now, some experts worry that testing the new mammoth ICBM could be a possible next step to get attention after the election.
    "I would not be surprised at all to see the North Koreans take some kind of a step in the ballistic missile testing arena or in the nuclear testing arena, particularly if Biden wins the election," said Evans Revere, a former assistant secretary of state for East Asia and the Pacific. "I think the North Koreans are going to want to have him start out on the back foot to the extent possible. And one way to do that would be what they did with President Obama."
    Biden's biggest challenge, experts say, could come during the presidential transition. His campaign website has just one vague sentence on North Korea policy, so it's likely Biden and his aides would need to quickly identify a strategy to get North Korea to move toward denuclearization, and to find the right people to implement that strategy.
    Joseph Yun, who served as a State Department special representative for North Korea under Obama and Trump, said it would be crucial for Biden to get in touch with the North Koreans and lay out his red lines as quickly as he can, so the North Koreans do not try to discover them on their own.
    "It's very important that in the beginning to get off on the right foot," Yun said. "You might want to send a message to North Korea, saying things like, We want to talk, we are prepared to talk, but for now, give us time and please don't do any tests."
    But each candidate has unique advantages and disadvantages. Trump's relationship with Kim might help continue to keep the temperature down on the Korean Peninsula, but his commitment to total denuclearization up-front remains unrealistic.
    Biden has been critical of Trump's relationship with Kim, whom he called a "thug" at the final presidential debate Thursday. Still, the former vice president has a chance to reset things. He does not need to demand full denuclearization immediately -- though he will surely know the failed history of previous incremental deals. Biden will also have to convince Japan and South Korea that Trump's transactional approach to alliances was a one-off and assure them that Washington is committed to their defense, regardless of cost.
      But the reality is that Biden and Trump face the same challenge when it comes to Kim: How do you get North Korea to stop developing nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles and, eventually, give up arms it sees as vital to deterring adversaries?
      So far, neither appears to have the answer.

      https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/27/asia/north-korea-next-president-challenges-intl-hnk-dst/index.html

      No comments:

      Post a Comment