Thursday, December 13, 2012

북한 장거리 로켓트 발사성공(수요일 아침)

North Koreans Launch Rocket in Defiant Act


Published: December 12, 2012
 

SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea launched a long-range rocket on Wednesday morning that appeared to reach as far as the Philippines, an apparent success for the country’s young and untested new leader, Kim Jong-un, and a step toward the nation’s goal of mastering the technology needed to build an intercontinental ballistic missile.


The Sohae rocket launching facility in Cholsan County in North Pyongan Province, North Korea.                           
KNS/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
Kim Jong-un, shown last month, wants to be seen as a leader hailed at home and feared abroad.
The North American Aerospace Defense Command, or Norad, said it had detected the launching and tracked the missile — a Galaxy-3 rocket, called the Unha-3 by the North — as its first stage appeared to fall into the Yellow Sea and the second stage into the Philippine Sea.
“Initial indications are that the missile deployed an object that appeared to achieve orbit,” Norad said. “At no time was the missile or the resultant debris a threat to North America.”
But the timing of the launching appeared to take American officials by surprise. Just an hour or two before blastoff from the Sohae Satellite Launching Station in Tongchang-ri on North Korea’s western coast, near China, American officials at a holiday reception at the Japanese ambassador’s residence in Washington said they thought the North Koreans had run into technical problems that could take them weeks to resolve.
North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency said the rocket succeeded in the ostensible goal of putting an earth-observation satellite named Kwangmyongsong-3, or Shining Star-3, into orbit, and celebrations by members of the North Korean media were reported.
Although the launching was driven in part by domestic considerations, analysts said it carried far-reaching foreign relations implications, coming as leaders in Washington and Beijing — as well as those soon to be chosen in Tokyo and Seoul — try to form a new way of coping with North Korea after two decades of largely fruitless attempts to end its nuclear and missile ambitions.
For President Obama, the launching deepened the complexity of dealing with the new North Korean government, after four years in which promises of engagement, then threats of deeper sanctions, have done nothing to modify the country’s behavior. A statement from the White House by Tommy Vietor, the National Security Council spokesman, called the launch a “a highly provocative act that threatens regional security, directly violates United Nations Security Council Resolutions 1718 and 1874, contravenes North Korea’s international obligations, and undermines the global nonproliferation regime.”
China, the North’s main ally, said on Wednesday that it “regrets” the launch, the first time it has used that word in the context of Pyongyang’s rocket program. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman, Hong Lei, also said that North Korea’s right to a peaceful space program was “subject to limitations by relevant United Nations Security Council resolutions,” somewhat tougher language than China has used on that subject in the past.
“North Korea, as a member of the United Nations, has the obligation to abide by relevant resolutions of the United Nations Security Council,” Mr. Hong said at a regular briefing in Beijing. He declined to say whether North Korea had lived up to that obligation or whether China had received advance notice that the launch would happen Wednesday.
In recent days, the Chinese Foreign Ministry had for the first time stressed the restrictions placed on the North by the U.N. resolutions, and said that China was ready to maintain “close communication” with other countries on the matter. But it was far from clear Wednesday how far China might be prepared to go in joining Washington to push for further sanctions on North Korea.
A delegation of Chinese officials visited Pyongyang shortly before North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, announced his intention to move ahead with the launch. Some Chinese and Western analysts interpreted the announcement, so soon after the Chinese trip, as a rebuff of Chinese efforts to persuade North Korea to abandon its plans. The launching appeared to dash the hopes of some analysts that Mr. Kim might soften North Korea’s confrontational stance. It showed him instead as intent on bolstering his father’s main legacy of nuclear weapons and long-range missile programs to justify his own hereditary rule.
For Mr. Kim, barely a year in office, the launching was important in three respects. Its apparent success, after a test of the same rocket failed spectacularly seconds after takeoff in April, demonstrated what one American intelligence official called “a more professional operation” to diagnose and solve rocket-design problems similar to those the United States encountered in the 1960s. He built credibility with the powerful North Korean military, whose ranks he purged in recent months, replacing some top leaders with his own loyalists.
He also advertised that the country, despite its backwardness and isolation, could master a missile technology that it has previously marketed to Iran, Pakistan and others. Some American officials, who have privately warned of increased missile cooperation between Iran and North Korea over the past year, have argued that the North Korean test would benefit Iran as much as North Korea.
The North has a long way to go before it can threaten neighboring countries, and perhaps one day the West Coast of the United States, with a nuclear-armed missile. It has yet to develop a nuclear warhead small enough to fit atop its missile, experts say, and it has not tested a re-entry vehicle that can withstand the heat of the atmosphere. Nor is it clear that the country knows how to aim a missile with much accuracy.


Choe Sang-hun reported from Seoul, and David E. Sanger from Washington. Jane Perlez contributed reporting from Beijing.


하루전만 해도,  고국의 정부와 관련 기관에서는 이북의 장거리 로켓발사가 기술상의 문제로 연기되여, 최소한 내년 2월 말경에나 다시 발사대에 재장착 될것으로 보도 했었고, 국민들을 안심 시켰었다.  해체되는 사진까지도 보여 주었었다.  같은 시각  미국을  비롯한 서구의 언론은 한국에서 처럼 크게 북한의 로켓발사를 보도 하지는 않았던 것으로 기억된다.

도둑 한명을 경찰 열명이 감당하기 힘들다는 얘기들도 음미해 본다.   고국의 정보수집 능력은
어디쯤 와 있는 것일까?  이북의 로켓이 발사된후, 미국의 와싱턴 포스트지는 로켓의 이름이
은하 3호로 발표했었고,  고국의 언론은 광명성 3호(Shining Star 3)로 나왔었다.   은하3가 맞는것 같다.

서구언론의 제목을 보면, 서방세계의 발사제재에 반발하는 뜻에서, 쏘아 올렸다고 한다.
고국에서는 대선과 연결지어 해석 하려는  전문가들의 코멘트가 정말로 코미디 같다.
그들의 지식과 해설은 한마디가 맞지 않았음이 증명되고도 남았다.   발사성공이후 그분들의
추측이 완전 빗나갔음에 한마디의 해명이 나왔다는 뉴스는 아직 접하지 못했다.   국민들도
전연 느끼질 못하는것 같다.

지금  조국의 언론은 "북한이 인공위성 발사국 반열에 들어섰는데, 정부는 그동안 무엇했나?
라고 비난만 쏟아붓고 있는 양상이다.

북한은 주민들에게 이사실을 완전 통제하여 알리지 않았고, 다만 북한의 엘리트 구룹만 볼수
있는 웹싸이트에만 이사실을 올려 놓았었다고 한다.  북한의 노동신문에도 로켓발사에 관한
기사는 전연 내보내질 않았었다고 한다.   발사 2시간이 지난후 성공이 확실해지자, 방송에 혁명가를 계속해서 내보냈고, 김일성 사진이 방영됐었다고 한다.

북한의 동향을 살피고 있는 남한의 관련부서의 활동상은, 앞으로 6일 남은 대선에 밀려  국민들의 관심밖으로 밀려나 주목을 받지 못했었다고 한다.  대선운동을 하는 후보자분들의 선거운동에서 흘러나오는 경제활성화 등등의 이슈에 더 촉각을 곤두세우고 있을때를 틈타 북한은
세계의 이목을 집중시킨 것이다.

대선후보중 선두구룹에서 뛰고 있는 한나라당 박근혜 후보와 민주당  문재인 후보는, 현 이명박 정부의 대북정책의 실패로 경색된 남북관계의 복원을 집권하면 하겠다고 공약을 국민들에게  열변을 토하고 있는 그시간에 북한은 로켓발사를 감행한 것이다.

문재인 후보는 한발 더 나아가, 집권하면 북한의 새 지도자 젊은 김정은과 정상회담을 추진하겠다고 열변을 토하고 있는 그시간에 로켓발사를 북한은 자행한 것이다.   문재인 후보는 북한의 거짖가면을 몰라서 였을까?  아니면 알면서도 국민들의 표를 얻어 집권을 하기위해 임기웅변식으로 그순간을 커버 했을까?   그런 후보가 대통령이 된다면..... 심히 걱정이다.

북한의 동맹국이자 경제원조를 주도하는 중국외무성도, 북한의 로켓발사에 대한 논평에서, 북한이 주장하는 평화목적의 로켓발사는 유엔에서 제정한 범위를 넘어선 행위로 매우 유감스럽다" 라고, 전에 없는 강한 톤으로 북한을 비난하는 자세인것 같다.  중국의 경제영역이 전세계를 향하여 거미줄 처럼 뻗어있는  상황에서  유엔결의안을 무시 해서는 안된다는 현실속에서
골육지책으로 그런 성명을 낸것 같다.  그러나 이순간이 지나면 조용해 진다는것을 그들은 이미 계산하고 있는것 같다.

평화적으로 사용하기위한 목적에서 발사를 감행했다면, 외부세계가 이를 믿을수 있도록
개방이나, 감시기구의 상주를 금하겠는가?   로켓이 우주를 빙빙 돌고 있는것과 북한 주민들이 먹을것이 없어 이추운 겨울에 아사 직전에 있는것과는 전연 상관이 없다고 주장하는 북한의 정권이 목적하는바는 충분히 예측되고도 남지만,   그런 수작은 현재의 상황에서는 절대로 이루어 질수 없음을 좀 알았으면 좋겠다.   발사에 성공했다 하지만,  실용화에 대한 비용과 또 실용화가 됐다고 한들,  그기술이 배고픈 주민들의 창자를 채워줄수는 없다.
아이고 답답해라.  




North Korea fires a long-range rocket

Ahn Young-joon/AP - South Koreans watch a public TV reporting news about North Korea's rocket launch at Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, South Korea, on Wednesday.
By ,
TOKYO — North Korea on Wednesday successfully fired into orbit a long-range rocket carrying a satellite, an outside aerospace monitoring organization said, a major advance in the authoritarian nation’s weapons program.
According to the North American Aerospace Defense Command, a joint organization of the United States and Canada, North Korea “deployed an object that appeared to achieve orbit” after the first and second stages of the rocket dropped into the sea.


Based on that assessment, the third stage of the rocket, as well as the satellite, would have entered orbit, aerospace experts said.
Though the Unha-3 rocket did not carry a warhead, it relied on technology similar to that of a long-range missile, leading Washington, Seoul and Tokyo to describe the launch as a de facto missile test that violated U.N. Security Council resolutions.
The North also said Wednesday that its launch was a success.
If North Korea indeed placed a satellite into orbit, it would mark a significant breakthrough in its decades-long attempt to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of hitting the United States and would present a new threat for the Obama administration.
The North had carried out four previous missile or rocket launches, dating back to 1998. In the most recent one, eight months ago, the rocket broke apart after roughly 90 seconds and dropped into the sea.
The rocket launched Wednesday was fired from a facility in the country’s northwestern corner, not far from the Chinese border. It traveled southward, zipping over the water between South Korea and China, flying above the Japanese island of Okinawa, then heading toward the Philippines.
According to the Japanese government, stages of the rocket fell into the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea, the planned trajectory that North Korea had described in its report to the International Maritime Organization, which is responsible for maritime safety.
South Korean President Lee Myung-bak called an emergency security meeting, and a Japanese government spokesman called the launch “unacceptable.”
“It is extremely regrettable that North Korea went through with the launch despite our calls to exercise restraint,” said the spokesman, Osamu Fujimura.
China also expressed its unhappiness with the long-range launch. Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei told reporters: “We express regret at (North Korea’s) launch in spite of the extensive concerns of the international community.”
Hong said China “believes U.N. Security Council reaction should be prudent and moderate and conducive to maintaining stability and avoiding escalation of the situation.”
In Washington, the White House called the launch a “highly provocative act that threatens regional security.”
Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.), chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, criticized the launch, saying it shows that a defiant Pyongyang “is moving ever closer towards its ultimate goal of producing a nuclear ballistic missile.”
The launch caught North Korea’s neighbors off guard. Though the North had stated earlier this month that it would go ahead, South Korean military officials on Tuesday told reporters in Seoul that Pyongyang was disassembling its rocket to fix technical problems.


The rocket was launched at 9:51 a.m. local time, according to the South Korean government.
For North Korea, an impoverished, authoritarian police state, the launch comes at a critical time. The country is days away from the one-year anniversary of the death of leader Kim Jong Il, and some outside analysts called the rocket blast a means to mark the occasion. The launch also comes just eight months after the high-profile failure — one the North had invited foreign journalists to watch.


 


This time, North Korea told its citizens almost nothing.. Though the government had laid out its plans on its state news agency Web site, only the most elite North Koreans have access to the Internet. The North never mentioned the plans in its newspaper, the Rodong Sinmun.
But Wednesday, roughly two hours after the rocket lifted off, the North held a special noon television broadcast, which opened with martial music and a picture of national founder Kim Il Sung.
The blast also comes one week before South Korea’s presidential election. National security and relations with the North have been lower priorities in the race compared with domestic economic issues. But the North’s announcement — and the launch Wednesday — placed a greater spotlight on the dangers posed by a family-run government that funnels its money to weapons programs.
Both leading presidential candidates in the South, conservative Park Geun-hye and liberal Moon Jae-in, have advocated some rapprochement with the North following a five-year period in which almost all dialogue and joint economic programs have been cut off. But Moon goes further, saying he’d want a summit with young North Korean leader Kim Jong Eun. Some analysts in Seoul say North Korea’s latest provocation could help Park.
South Korea’s foreign affairs minister, Kim Sung-hwan, urged the North to “spend its enormous budget on its people rather than on rockets.”
Outside analysts cautioned that the North, even if it carries out a successful rocket launch, still has hurdles to climb before it can clearly threaten the United States. Most analysts don’t think the North is capable of miniaturizing a nuclear warhead to mount on a long-range missile.
Additionally, “if this is considered relatively successful, that also does not prove they have a reliable system that will work time after time,” said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Washington-based Arms Control Association.

Yoonjung Seo in Seoul and Ed O’Keefe in Washington contributed to this report.




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