Tuesday, November 17, 2020

Biden 당선자에게 북한은 어떤존재인가? 품어야 돼나 아니면 적으로, 액션은 없을 것으로 보인다.

 

먼저 나의 생각을 말한다면,  Biden당선자는 앞으로 동북아의 평화 안보를 지키기위한 특단의 조치로 북한 김정은에 대한 압박행위나 재제 행위는 실질적으로는 없을 것이다.  왜냐면, Biden당선자는 그뿌리가 Obama전 대통령과 같다. 그가 8년간 재임하면서, 대북한 외교는 미국이 갖고있는 경제, 군사적 우위의 힘을 바탕으로 김정은 Regime을 무모한 행동을 못하도록 했어야 했는데, 실질적으로 북한 김정은이가 핵무기와 탄도미사일을 개발하는데, Foundation을 만들어주는 그수준에서 세월만 죽이고 트럼프에게 바통을 물려줬었기 때문에, 나는 그렇게 진단하는 것이다.

김정은이는 이번 미국대선에서 트럼프가 재신임을 얻지 못한데 대해 못내 아쉬워 할수도 있을 것이지만, Biden이 내년 1월말에 정식으로 대통령에 취임하면 몇개월간은 서로간에 탐색하느라 별 특이한 사항은 일어나지 않을 것이다. 그러나 그후부터는 트럼프때보다 더 얕잡아 보면서, 거꾸로 미국의 신경을 건드릴것으로 예측된다. 그러면 미국의 Biden 대통령 대응은 "이에는이, 눈에는 눈''으로 라는 정책보다는 쉽게 유연하게 큰 마찰없이 임무를 채우는 정책을 추구할것이다.

어떤 전문가들은 북한 김정은이 미국을 자극하면, 강하게 응징할것이라는 견해도 있는것 같다. 그예로 미국은 한미간의 군사훈련을 규모를 크게 늘려 실시할 것이고, 주한미군의 군병력을 늘릴수도 고려될것이며, 동시에 경제봉쇄정책을 더 강화 할것이라는 견해다. 

민주당 Bill Clinton정부때를 본다면, 이락에서 테러세력이 커지고 있어, 한때는 수도 바그다드에서 로켓포가 떨어졌어도, 실질적으로 테러소탕작전을 위한 병력을 파견하기보다는, 겨우 페이트어트 미사일 한방을 발사한것외에는 미국의 힘을 과시한적이 없었던 민주당 정책을 눈여겨 봐야 한다.

오바마 대통령역시, 위에서 언급했드시, 실질적인 미국의 힘을 과시하여 북의 불법적인 핵무기 개발과 탄도미사일 개발을, 외교적 또는 군사행동을 통해 위협한적은 없었다. 중국의 영향을 많이 받아, 중국 매개체로한 뚜쟁이 노릇을 요구했을지언정, 북한제재에 오바마 행정부는 실질적으로 적절한 대응을 해본적이 없었다는 과거 민주당 정부의 정책이 증명해준다. 

더욱 문제인것은, 한국의 문재인정부가, 설령 Biden정부가 대북정책을 강경쪽으로 몰아간다해도, 이에 호응해주리나는 기대가 없다는점도 깊이 생각해 봐야 한다. 문재인 정부는, 김여정이가 개성에 700억을 들여 건축하고 운영해 오던 남북연락사무소 빌딩을 김정은의 동생 김여정이가 한국과는 상의 한마디없이, 하루아침에 폭파 시켰어도 비난한마디 못하고 지금까지 무응답으로 일관 해오고 있는점이다.  미국민주당의 과거 정책을 잘 알고있을 문재인 정부는 내적으로는 더 쾌재를 부르고 있다고 봐야 한다. 

현재로서는  한반도 전문가들이 점을 치듯이 의견을 낸다해도, 개인들의 추측일뿐, 증거가 확실한 대북정책으로 확정된점은 없다. 다만 지켜볼 뿐이다. 

지금 문재인은 시진핑의 방한을 성사 시키기위해 목메고있다.  시진핑이 만약에 연말 연시에 한국을 방문하게 된다면, 조건을 내밀것이다. 즉 미행정부가 새로 들어서면, 동북아의 평화적 안정을 이유로 이북에 대한 강한 위협정책, 즉 비핵화추진을 밀어부치기 보다는 현재의 수준에서 관계를 유지할수 있도록, 한반도의 실정을 이해 시키라는 밀약을 성사시키는 조건을 내밀것이다.  두고 볼일이다.

결론적으로 "좋은게 좋은식"이라는, 즉 집권 4년동안에 북한과는 현재의 수준만 지킨다해도 다음 재선을 위한 선거에서 크게 악영향을 끼치지 않을 것이라는, 즉 북한 때문에 골치아픈것 보다는 민주당의 정책이 문재인 정부를 통해 밀어부칠 것이라는 생각도 부인할수는 없을 것 같다.


Seoul, South Korea (CNN)North Korea has still not reacted to the United States' presidential election. Its silence speaks volumes.

According to analysts, it's highly unlikely that President-elect Joe Biden would have been North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's preferred candidate.
President Donald Trump has been unique among American leaders for his willingness to personally engage with Kim, providing him with a sense of legitimacy on the world stage, even though those efforts have since stalled.
"I do think North Korea would be disappointed that Trump didn't win," said Ambassador Joseph Yun, a former US special representative for North Korea policy under both Presidents Obama and Trump.
    "For them, Trump was a big deal, they had three summit meetings, unprecedented meetings."
    The highly unusual relationship was underscored by the countless missives, described by Trump as "love letters," that the two men exchanged during Trump's four years in office.
    Biden, on the other hand, has been brutal in his criticism of Trump's engagement with Kim, which according to the president-elect weakened US sanctions.
    Biden called Kim a "thug" during the last presidential debate and has been highly critical of North Korea throughout the entirety of this year's presidential campaign.
    It's unclear what comes next for Biden. He has outlined his priorities on entering the White House and North Korea does not feature, nor is a meeting likely any time soon. Unlike Trump, Biden has made it clear he would be unwilling to sit down with Kim without preconditions.
    But precedent suggests North Korea has a tendency to stage some kind of provocation in the early stages of a new US administration. Pyongyang fired a missile just weeks after President Trump was inaugurated in 2017, setting the tone for a volatile and tense year.
    Experts are split as to whether North Korea will feel the need to do the same for Biden.
    "The North Koreans often telegraph what they're going to do," said John Delury, an associate professor at Seoul's Yonsei University.
    "If you listen carefully to their statements they usually indicate where they are heading, and I would say there's been almost no signals that they're planning a major provocation or test."
    As Yun points out, these are different times for Kim -- and a missile test might not be as high on his agenda as it was four years ago.
    "They now have proven that they have a viable ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile) that can reach almost anywhere in the continental US, they also have a very big nuclear device which they tested in 2017," Yun said.
    North Korea also has a number of its own pressing issues to contend with. The coronavirus, which Kim claims has yet to infect any of his people, a struggling economy as sanctions continue to pinch, and recovery from a string of typhoons and flooding earlier this year.

    What comes next

    Biden knows the challenges likely posed by North Korea. Pyongyang conducted both a nuclear and a long-range missile test in the opening months of Obama's presidency, under which Biden served as vice president.
    However, he is not necessarily expected to revert back to the Obama-era policy of "strategic patience" of waiting for Pyongyang to come to the negotiating table while keeping sanctions in place.
    That policy failed to achieve its main objectives. during that time, North Korea significantly expanded its nuclear and missile capability and carried out four of its six nuclear tests.
    Ambassador Yun said that Biden has shown he "wants a diplomatic solution, he wants an engagement."
    "Sure, he has emphasized denuclearization, but at the same time he has emphasized what he called principled diplomacy so I would hope that the engagement door would be more open now," he said.
    However, a provocation from Pyongyang -- especially a missile test -- could dramatically change the calculus for a Biden administration.
    Evans Revere, senior director with the Albright Stonebridge Group, has extensive experience negotiating with North Korea during his time at the State Department. He believes Biden would react strongly to any provocation from North Korea.
    A response will most likely include the immediate resumption of large-scale US-South Korea military exercises, new military deployments to Korea and the surrounding area and a major effort to impose new sanctions and strengthen existing measures, said Revere. "As well as to take new steps designed to isolate, weaken and pressure the North Korean regime," he added.
    It is not clear at this time what pressure China, North Korea's main trading partner and ally, would exert to prevent a resumption of testing. It's also not clear how a US-China relationship, currently at its lowest point in years, would progress.
    Trump's personal style may have led to three history-making summits, but nuclear talks between the two countries have been stuck in neutral for months.
    Diplomacy with North Korea will likely be much more process oriented, said Delury of Yonsei University.
    "Under Trump what we've seen is a personalistic style which is almost unprecedented," he said. "A Biden administration is going to be an administration, there's going to be a coherence to it."

    The era of summits may be over ... for now

    Biden has not ruled out meeting with the North Korean leader but only "on the condition that he would agree that he would be drawing down his nuclear capacity."
    Pyongyang has doled out its fair share of insults to Biden over recent months, calling him a "fool of low IQ" and a "rabid dog" who "must be beaten to death with a stick."
    But former US officials who have dealt with Pyongyang acknowledge name-calling is par for the course. Trump himself has shown us threats and insults do not rule out diplomacy.
    President Obama warned an incoming President Trump that North Korea would be one of the most pressing national security concerns.
    Revere believes Biden does not need any such warning.
      "He understands the problem and knows that, after four years of the Trump administration, the North Korean nuclear threat is greater than ever," Revere said.
      "Biden is not about to ignore North Korea, and Pyongyang can be counted on to ensure that he doesn't."

      https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/14/asia/biden-north-korea-intl-hnk/index.html

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